Famine Warning for Northern Gaza Draws U.S. Rebuke and Raises Questions

The dispute highlights the difficulties with data collection in Gaza that have hampered humanitarian efforts since the war began.

A U.S. diplomat on Tuesday slammed a new report on food security in the Gaza Strip that said famine was “highly likely” in part of the enclave, with the criticism fueling confusion and controversy over a humanitarian crisis that has drawn significant international attention.

The report, released on Monday by the Famine Early Warning Systems Network, a food security initiative known as FEWS Net, cited recent food supply data and population estimates to suggest that northern Gaza, where Israel has renewed its military campaign over the last three months, was reaching famine conditions.

In response, Jack Lew, a diplomat serving as the U.S. ambassador to Israel, said on Tuesday that FEWS Net’s report was “irresponsible” and relied on “outdated and inaccurate” population data, making it a poor predictor of food security issues.

“At a time when inaccurate information is causing confusion and accusations, it is irresponsible to issue a report like this,” Mr. Lew said. “We work day and night with the U.N. and our Israeli partners to meet humanitarian needs‚ which are great.”

The dispute highlights the difficulties with data collection in Gaza that have hampered humanitarian efforts since the war began. Israel’s bombardment of the enclave, which began after a Hamas-led attack on Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, has forced repeated mass displacements and made it extremely difficult for aid groups to track civilians, determine their needs and, critically, gain an understanding of how much shifts in population data may reflect displacements or deaths.

Israel has said that it works hard to facilitate supplies to Gaza but that aid groups have often failed to deliver assistance because of widespread looting and lawlessness. The Biden administration warned Israel in October to let more aid in or face restrictions on military assistance. In November, it said that Israel had made important changes to improve the supply flow but that more still needed to be done.

Mr. Lew’s objection to the FEWS Net report came down to a difference in estimating the size of northern Gaza’s population. The report estimated that 65,000 to 75,000 people were still living there. Mr. Lew argued that only 7,000 to 15,000 civilians lived in the area, meaning that fewer resources would be necessary to sustain them. He said his range was based on two separate sets of data: one from the United Nations that estimated 10,000 to 15,000 civilians in the area, and another from Israeli authorities estimating 5,000 to 9,000.

The Israeli authority that coordinates the flow of goods to Gaza, known as COGAT, did not respond to requests for comment on the new food security report. But in a statement on social media on Monday, the Israeli agency disputed an unnamed recent report that it said “deliberately and inaccurately ignores the extensive humanitarian efforts made by Israel in the northern Gaza Strip” and “creates a false representation for the international community.”

FEWS Net said on Tuesday that it had relied on U.N. figures from mid-November to compile its report and that it would update its findings based on more recent numbers. But it did not withdraw the assessment.

Regardless of the population size in northern Gaza, OCHA, the U.N. agency for coordination of humanitarian affairs, said on Tuesday that the humanitarian supplies reaching the area were insufficient to support the remaining civilians there. It accused Israeli authorities of denying most U.N. attempts to coordinate humanitarian access to the area in December and expressed alarm over violence in and around hospitals.

The U.N. agency said that a hasty evacuation and military strikes on or near three hospitals in recent days had left one facility with almost no staff members on site and caused panic and damage in the other two.

The Israeli military said on Tuesday that it had conducted a “limited operation” against militants near the Indonesian Hospital in northern Gaza after fighters had planted explosives in the area. The hospital was evacuated before the operation, according to the military.

Five militants were killed in the attacks, the military said, and multiple other militants were later arrested, it said, including one involved in the Oct. 7, 2023, attack. Israel has accused Hamas of exploiting civilian populations and infrastructure in Gaza in violation of international law and says it makes efforts to mitigate civilian harm.

Such attacks have been deliberately relentless, part of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s stated strategy to wear Hamas down and create conditions for a cease-fire deal. But he has not given any timeline for a deal even as the Palestinian death toll rises and evidence mounts that Israeli military actions have most likely contributed to the deaths of hostages in Gaza, according to the military’s own probes.

Authorities in Gaza do not distinguish between civilian and combatant deaths. Based on their figures, more than 3,780 people have been killed in Gaza since October of this year, and more than 45,000 have been killed since the start of the war. Many of those killed in northern Gaza and throughout the enclave have been civilians, though it is unclear precisely what proportion they make up of the total death toll.