Ann Selzer Announces End of Election Polling Operation

Her final poll of Iowa before the election showed Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump, an outlier and a major miss.

J. Ann Selzer, the vaunted Iowa political pollster who released an eyebrow-raising poll just before Election Day, said on Sunday that she would end her election polling operation.

Ms. Selzer, 68, has long been a trusted voice in the polling industry, predicting the state’s margins of past presidential elections with an accuracy few rivaled. So when her last poll before Election Day showed Vice President Kamala Harris leading former President Donald J. Trump in Iowa, it created a political shock wave.

It was a surprising result, showing Ms. Harris leading by three percentage points. And observers noted it was an outlier. But many trusted Ms. Selzer’s expertise and her track record. Nearly every other poll in Iowa showed Mr. Trump leading the state by a healthy margin, and in 2020 Mr. Trump won the state by eight points. By the time ballots were counted early this month, Mr. Trump led Ms. Harris by more than 13 points en route to his overall victory.

Ms. Selzer said in a column in The Des Moines Register that she decided over a year ago that this would be the last election she polled.

“Would I have liked to make this announcement after a final poll aligned with Election Day results?” Ms. Selzer wrote. “Of course. It’s ironic that it’s just the opposite.”

“Polling is a science of estimation, and science has a way of periodically humbling the scientist,” she added. “So I’m humbled yet always willing to learn from unexpected findings.”

Ms. Selzer’s announcement caps a polling career spanning more than three decades, one in which, she said, she was no stranger to being “the outlier queen.” Her previous notable polls include one showing Senator Barack Obama of Illinois winning the Iowa Democratic caucuses in 2008 and another predicting Mr. Trump easily beating Joseph R. Biden Jr. in 2020 in Iowa, an outcome few others foresaw.

This year’s poll was indeed an outlier. On Election Day, Senator JD Vance of Ohio, Mr. Trump’s running mate, emerged from a polling booth in Cincinnati and dismissed Ms. Selzer’s poll and its finding that women were breaking for Ms. Harris — a result that many thought could have implications across swing states.

The Register, which oversees the Iowa Poll run by Ms. Selzer, said on Sunday there was “no likely single culprit” for the discrepancy between the poll and the final tally.

“We recognize the need to evolve and find new ways to accurately take the pulse of Iowans on state and national issues,” wrote Carol Hunter, The Register’s executive editor, in a column.