Who will govern Gaza after the war: Israel, Palestinians or foreign forces?

Palestinians insist Gaza's future should be theirs to decide

J​erusalem: The killing of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar has ignited debate over who could govern war-ravaged Gaza as Israel presses its war in the Palestinian territory, vowing to eliminate the militants.

Palestinians insist Gaza's future should be theirs to decide, rejecting any foreign intervention.

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But many in the international community are signalling a readiness to shape the territory's post-war future, even as a ceasefire remains elusive.

What is Israel's plan?

Israeli authorities have said they do not intend to govern Gaza, but firmly oppose Hamas returning to power in the territory it has ruled since 2007.

Some far-right Israelis, including members of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's coalition, have floated the idea of re-establishing Israeli settlements in Gaza, from which Israel withdrew in 2005.

For now, the Israeli military plans to remain "as long as needed" to set up a "security arrangement", a security source told AFP, adding "our goal now is not to control Gaza".

Israeli media have reported the possible deployment of an international force, with potential participants including Egypt and the United Arab Emirates.

Specific conditions for such involvement remain unclear.

What role for Palestinians?

The Palestinian Authority (PA), which governs parts of the occupied West Bank, has been working to secure a foothold in Gaza through municipal structures where its employees remain active.

A Hamas official told AFP the group would back a technocratic government in Gaza without direct participation, while requesting Hamas be consulted on appointing such a government.

Palestinian political factions are exploring a unified leadership, addressing the split that emerged in 2007 when Fatah, the party of Palestinian president Mahmud Abbas, was expelled from Gaza.

At a BRICS summit this week, Abbas said Gaza was an "integral part of the State of Palestine" under its administration.

Abbas said that "Palestine's rejection of any measures that would lead to the separation of Gaza from the State of Palestine."

"The Authority will not be able to function in the Gaza Strip without Hamas," said Muhammad Shehada of the European Council on Foreign Relations, pointing to the enduring support Hamas retains among some Gazans and considerable number of government employees in place since 2007.

Discussions about reopening of the Rafah crossing between Gaza and Egypt - currently under Israeli military control - have included foreign partners such as the European Union, which previously staffed the terminal.

A PA presence at Rafa could provide access to Gaza City, bypassing reliance on Israeli forces.

What are the obstacles?

"We are just beginning the difficult discussions about the very beginning of the end," a European diplomat in Israel said.

"Israelis express a desire to see Palestinian leaders emerge, but they seek this outside the existing Palestinian political channels."

Diplomatic sources say some foreign countries or private firms, like Constellis (formerly Blackwater), might maintain security in Gaza, but the idea remains speculative.

Arab states, wary of the optics of their forces confronting Palestinian resistance, remain cautious.

"No one wants to be the lynchpin in a complex reconstruction involving numerous security and political questions, nor do they wish to serve as financial backers for the Israelis," said Xavier Guignard, a researcher and expert on Palestinian issues at the NORIA Research.

He added that establishing governance for Gaza may be premature while the Israeli army remains in the region.

"There's no way to know how long a military occupation will last," he said.

Recent polls in Israel indicate that public opposition to the establishment of a Palestinian state is very high.

Experts suggest Israelis are also unlikely to support the return of the PA in Gaza.

"Having a strengthened Palestinian Authority in Gaza would be a natural response, but it remains a red line," said Guignard.

"This approach could look like a political solution that facilitates the reunification of Gaza and the West Bank."​​​​​​