Friedrich Merz’s endgame: All the scenarios, rated – POLITICO

BERLIN — German Chancellor Friedrich Merz faces the threat of being ousted as soon as this weekend, just 16 months after entering office promising an ambitious reform agenda and vowing to bring back German leadership in Europe.

Ahead of two key state elections in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and Berlin this Sunday, where Merz’s center-right Christian Democratic Union risks painful defeats, senior party members are privately discussing whether Germany needs a so-called Kanzlertausch — a change of chancellor — to arrest a rapidly accelerating decline in support for the government.

Merz’s national popularity plummeted to just 14% this week, while a new poll shows his CDU/CSU conservative party alliance falling to an unprecedented low of just 18%.