Government projected to be 44 percent over Jobseeker Support benefit target

The government is projected to be way off its target of reducing the number of people on the Jobseeker Support benefit.

But there is a downward trend, from what seemed to be a peak in December last year.

Social Development Minister Louise Upston had set her sights on slashing Jobseeker Support numbers by 50,000 - from 190,000 when the government took office, to 140,000 by 2030.

Treasury forecasts revealed that was far from likely, predicting 201,900 people would be on that benefit in January 2030 before dropping to 194,000 in June that year.

Appearing before select committee during Parliament's scrutiny week on Wednesday, Upston said the government set an ambitious target.

"I do not shy away from that for one moment," she said.

Upston said her job was to lead her ministry to reduce the number of people relying on welfare.

"The number of those on the Jobseeker benefit, touch wood, hit their peak in December last year, so despite the war in the Middle East having a direct impact on our economy, we haven't seen that translate significantly to Jobseeker Support numbers.

"So I'm really confident, despite the [Budget] forecasts, that we're heading in the right direction, and that our numbers are tracking down."

She pointed out other measures like the unemployment rate had not reached forecast numbers.

"Treasury's forecasts, they are a bit like crystal ball gazing."

There had also been a seven percent increase in the number of people who left welfare into work in the year to March, Upston said.

She named a number of government initiatives support that - for example, ensuring jobs created by the Regional Infrastructure Fund went to people on the Jobseeker Support benefit.

1225 applications for one cleaning job

Labour's social development spokesperson Willow-Jean Prime referred to an Auckland cleaning job which received more than 1000 applicants on Seek.

"I'm hearing from youth providers that rangatahi are wanting work, they just cannot get work. How are they supposed to find employment when there are are 1225 applicants for a single cleaning job?"

Upston and Associate Social Development Minister Penny Simmonds both put that down to difficult economic conditions inherited from the former Labour government, coupled with uncontrollable factors like the Iran war, Donald Trump's tariffs, and severe weather.

Simmonds also suggested young people applying for jobs did not have the necessary numeracy and literacy skills.

"The jobs aren't there, though," Prime said.

"They have to have those skills as well," Simmonds replied.

Labour's Ginny Anderson accused Upston of failing to create better economic conditions, which resulted in a heated exchange in which the pair raised their voices to speak over one another.

"So taking on board that you haven't created the economic conditions for jobs," Anderson said.

Upston shot back: "Well, no, I refute that, I totally refute that. So, do not, do not put words in my mouth."

Upston said during the six years Labour was in government, there was a 54 percent rise in the number of Jobseekers, compared to 14 percent over the current coalition's two-and-a-half year term.

Prime told RNZ the Minister was ignoring the Covid-19 pandemic.

"They have been in government for almost three years now, they continue to blame the former Labour government, when is this minister going to take responsibility for the economic conditions and their poor choices?" she said.

"They are focused on this arbitrary number that they've set themselves that all the forecasts show they're not going to meet, instead of actually dealing with the fact that we have thousands of people applying for jobs that just don't exist."

Willis: "We've now entered the stunt part"

Finance Minister Nicola Willis was also grilled about employment forecasts at a separate Scrutiny Week hearing on Wednesday morning.

Asked why they had been revised down since last Budget, Willis said she would point Labour MPs' attention toward "a few events in the Middle East".

"We have seen a global oil shock that, in the view of the International Energy Agency, is the most extreme the world has ever experienced," she said.

"New Zealand is not immune to international events, and there have been significant international events since the last Budget update."

Willis noted the inflationary pressures due to rising fuel prices, as well as an overall downgrade in global growth.

As the hearing drew to a close, Labour's finance spokeperson Barbara Edmonds asked Willis when she last visited a food bank or a family living in a state house.

Willis said she was happy to check her diary: "I think we've now entered the stunt part of the hearing."

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