Reprieve for Christopher Luxon, but National still under 30% in latest poll

The latest Taxpayers Union-Curia poll shows National slightly up - but still below 30 percent, and Labour slightly down, with the coalition parties comfortably able to form a government.

Support has risen for all coalition parties, while support has dropped for all opposition parties.

National is up 1.4 points to 29.8 percent compared to the last poll in March, while New Zealand First is up 3.9 points to 13.6 percent and ACT is up 1.5 points to 9 percent.

This is the highest level of support for New Zealand First since the TPU-Curia poll started in November 2021.

Labour is down 1.0 points to 33.4 percent, while the Greens are down 2.7 points to 7.8 percent, and Te Pāti Māori is down 0.6 points to 2.6 percent.

On these numbers, National gains 1 seat to 37, New Zealand First gains 4 seats to 17, and ACT gains 1 seat to 11.

The combined projected seats for the coalition parties increases 6 to 65, comfortably forming a government. This is the best equal result for the government since December 2024 in this poll.

Labour drops 2 seats to 42, the Greens drop 3 seats to 10, and Te Pāti Māori drops 1 seat to 3. The combined seats for the Opposition bloc drops 6 to 55.

The Opportunity Party was the only minor party outside Parliament to register, up half a point to 2.6.

In the preferred prime minister rankings, Chris Hipkins is down 1.0 points to 21.7 percent, while Christopher Luxon is down 0.5 points to 20.5 percent.

Winston Peters is up 1.7 points to 12.1 percent, Chlöe Swarbrick is up 2.8 points to 7.4 percent and David Seymour is down 0.6 points to 4.6 percent.

The poll of 1000 people was conducted by phone (landlines and mobile) and online between Wednesday 01 April and Thursday 02 April 2026. It has a maximum margin of error of +/- 3.1%.

Taxpayers' Union spokesperson Tory Relf said the poll showed a clear shift back towards the government bloc with their best result since December 2024 in this polling "driven by a record result for New Zealand First, and increases in support for both National and ACT."

"But it not clear a clear cut thing. Even on these numbers, the ultimate decision on who could form a government rests with New Zealand First."

At the start of March, the Taxpayers' Union/Curia poll had National on 28.4 percent - down nearly three percentage points from the month before. The latest RNZ/Reid Research poll had the party on 30.8 percent, also trending downwards.

Both March polls had National behind Labour, which polled 34.4 percent in the Taxpayers' Union/Curia poll and 35.6 percent according to RNZ/Reid Research.

Curia is a long-running and established pollster in New Zealand, which has resigned its membership from the Research Association New Zealand (RANZ) industry body.

Polls compare to the most recent poll by the same polling company, as different polls can use different methodologies. They are intended to track trends in voting preferences, showing a snapshot in time, rather than be a completely accurate predictor of the final election result.

The general election is scheduled to be held on 7 November.

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