Shuffling a fresh deck

A cabinet reshuffle close to an election is a delicate and dangerous undertaking: do it right and it can reshape an executive so it looks ready for the challenges ahead of polling day but do it wrong and it looks like a desperate throw of the dice.

Prime Minister Christopher Luxon said several months ago that he would refresh his Cabinet, a reorganisation of portfolios which became necessary rather than desirable after senior ministers Judith Collins and Shane Reti announced their departure to head the Law Commission and imminent retirement from politics respectively.

For whatever reason the reshuffle continued to be delayed, to the point that it has now been announced just six months before the House rises for the election campaign — which does not give those fresh to Cabinet or the ministry much time to prove themselves.

Mr Luxon did not opt for a major overhaul: no ministers other than those already going were dropped from Cabinet, and there were few bolters in his new National squad.

The elevation of Chris Penk to Cabinet was entirely expected and well-deserved. He has managed his out-of-Cabinet portfolios in a diligent and generally appreciated manner, communicates well, and he is respected by his political opponents.

Becoming Minister of Defence is a natural fit for a former Navy officer and he will have a good grounding in the issues, having been Ms Collins’ associate defence minister.

The other new Cabinet minister, Penny Simmonds, was a surprise for northern observers but not for those in the South, who have been well familiar with Ms Simmonds’ abilities as a chief executive of the Southland Institute of Technology.

The Invercargill MP was made a minister outside Cabinet in 2023 and did make an initial misstep, mishandling changes to disability funding and losing the disability issues portfolio as a consequence.

Since that professional and personal disappointment Ms Simmonds has done a diligent job implementing vocational education reform.

While the dismantling of Te Pukenga might not be to everyone’s taste, it was party policy during the last election campaign and she has achieved it — a job which Mr Luxon praised as well done when announcing her new role.

The move to be Minister of Tertiary Education is a natural shift: universities and polytechnics face similar issues in terms of attracting students and managing budgets. There is a natural alignment with her second portfolio, Science, Innovation and Technology.

Six months will not give Ms Simmonds opportunity for wholescale reform, but she will need to ensure Dr Reti’s initiatives when he was in charge of these areas are implemented.

Much of the post-reshuffle conversation has centred on senior minister Chris Bishop and his perceived demotion.

Mr Bishop struggled mightily to hide his disappointment on Thursday, but in losing both the role of Leader of the House and post as National’s campaign manager there is no mistaking that his wings have been clipped.

That said, he remains a senior minister and indispensable workhorse. Mr Bishop is a young man and the sun will no doubt shine on his fortunes again at some point.

As for ministers outside Cabinet, the promotion of Cameron Brewer was also no surprise: being chairman of the finance and expenditure select committee is usually a sign that greater things are expected of an MP.

The elevation of Wairarapa MP Mike Butterick (Land Information, associate Agriculture) was more surprising, but he is well-connected in the rural sector and that is a traditional source of votes that National can ill-afford to neglect.

The reshuffle held little for the younger talent in National’s ranks, although Nicola Grigg did pick up the Environment portfolio that was formerly Ms Simmonds’.

Notably Minister for the South Island James Meager — a surprise promotion in 2025 — stayed where he was.

Time, however, is on their side. They and the likes of Southland MP Joseph Mooney, Tim Costley, Katie Nimon, Catherine Wedd and Greg Fleming may well rise in the ranks in the years ahead.

The ultimate reshuffle awaits on November 7, when Mr Luxon gets his performance review from the electorate.