Nolte: Polls Show Democrats Losing Ground for 2026 Midterms

As President Trump puts more focus on the economy and everyday people begin to feel the easing of Bidenflation, things do not look as rosy for Democrats in the upcoming midterm elections.

Looking at the RealClearPolitics poll of polls, what had been a net 5.5 point lead for Democrats in the generic congressional poll at the beginning of the month has now been cut in half to just a 2.7 point lead.

On December 1, 46.5 percent of those polled wanted to see Democrats control the U.S. House and U.S. Senate, compared to 41 percent who said the same of the GOP.

Today, Democrat support sits at 45.3 percent compared to 42.6 percent for Republicans.

For context, in the 2018 midterms, and with Donald Trump sitting in the White House, Democrats led by an average of 7.3 percent in congressional generic poll. It should be noted that even with that lead, Democrats failed to retake the U.S. Senate.

It’s also worth noting that Republicans are performing better in specific polls, and this apples-to-apples comparison is the most accurate way I know of to measure momentum.

Emerson’s latest poll shows Democrats up by two. In November, Emerson had Democrats up by four.

Morning Consult shows Democrats up by only one point. Two previous Morning Consult polls had Democrats up four.

Quantus Insights has Democrats up by two, compared to four earlier this month.

A six-point Democrat lead in the Economist/YouGov polls has been cut to just four points.

Quinnipiac had Democrats up by nine in October. Today, that lead sits at just four.

Only the outlier Reuters has good news for Democrats, a jump from a single-point lead to a four-point lead.

This is real, slow-but-steady movement for the GOP, and it’s not difficult to figure out what’s causing it. For the past few weeks, the Trump administration has been rightfully boasting about economic progress. Additionally, those barometers for everyday Americans, like gas and egg prices, have noticeably improved.

What’s more, Democrats are nowhere near as focused on the economy as they need to be. When not calling for outright sedition in the military, they’re whining about a long overdue upgrade to the White House, freaking out for the 11,286,312^th time over something Orange Bad Man said, and voting in support of sterilizing and queering little kids. Plus, all their doomspeak about Trump’s tariffs exploding inflation has proven laughably false.

We have a long way to go to the midterms, so the usual caveats apply about how anything can happen. But as of right now, I’d rather be us than them. A 2.7 point lead is likely not enough to retake the House, the momentum is with us, and everyone expects the economy to look even better next year.

John Nolte’s first and last novel, Borrowed Time, is winning five-star raves from everyday readers. You can read an excerpt here and an in-depth review here. Also available in hardcover and on Kindle and Audiobook.