How long will Haryana rout haunt Congress?

After its defeat in the Haryana assembly polls, the Congress continues to lose bargaining power within the INDIA bloc and is likely to contest a historically low number of seats in the next month's Maharashtra and Jharkhand elections.

IMAGE: INDIA bloc leaders including NC president Farooq Abdullah, Leader of Opposition in Lok Sabha and Congress leader Rahul Gandhi, party general secretary Priyanka Gandhi Vadra, SP chief Akhilesh Yadav, AAP MP Sanjay Singh and DMK MP Kanimozhi Karunanidhi attend the swearing-in ceremony of Jammu and Kashmir government, in Srinagar, October 16, 2024. Photograph: ANI Photo

Even as parleys continue in both states, the grand old party is expected to contest less than 110 seats in the November 20 polls for the 288-member Maharashtra assembly.

In the 2019 Maharashtra election, the Congress contested 147 seats and won 44, registering a strike rate of 30 percent.

The undivided Shiv Sena had contested 126 seats and won 56 and the undivided Nationalist Congress Party had bagged 54 of the 121 seats it had contested.

The best strike rate (64.02 percent) in the previous Maharashtra election was of the Bharatiya Janata Party, which won 105 seats of the 164 contested.

Across the Mumbai region, once a Congress stronghold, the party is set to concede a hefty share of seats to its Maha Vikas Aghadi ally, Shiv Sena (Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray).

Ten of the 36 seats in this region have already gone to the Shiv Sena following seat-sharing talks, leaving the Congress cadre high and dry and sparking a massive rebellion within the party.

Likewise, for the polls to the 81-member Jharkhand Assembly, INDIA allies Jharkhand Mukti Morcha and Congress have declared that they would together contest 70 seats.

The break-up, however, is not yet available, with sources indicating that the ruling JMM stands to gain more from the seat-sharing talks.

The Jharkhand election is scheduled to take place in two phases on November 13 and November 20.

In the 2019 Jharkhand polls, the Congress managed to secure 16 seats of the 31 it contested, while the JMM bagged 30 of the 43 seats it fought.

The Rashtriya Janata Dal and the Left were given seven seats in the last election.

This time, the RJD has been given 11 seats to contest. Lalu Prasad's party had threatened the JMM and Congress, saying "our options are open", which forced the dominant allies to part with more seats.

For the Congress to contest the same number of seats (31) it had contested five years ago, the JMM will have to give away four seats from its quota of 43 it had fought the last time and this appears an unlikely scenario.

That the chips are down for the Congress is most evident in Uttar Pradesh, where the party has completely surrendered its claim and will back dominant INDIA partner Samajwadi Party in all 10 assembly bypolls, though the schedule has so far been announced only for nine, with the poll plan for Milkipur in Faizabad (which houses the Ram temple in Ayodhya) yet to be unveiled.

Sources said the Uttar Pradesh Congress has asked the party high-command to forego the bypolls, saying "this is not the most appropriate time".

A senior Congress leader, however, claimed that the party will get a sizable number of seats in Maharashtra and will contest the maximum of 107 seats, the highest by any MVA constituent.

He also claimed that the Congress has not lost its bargaining power and that the other INDIA constituents are aware of the grand old party's position and reach across the country.

"The Congress is not down and the leaders of the regional parties, who are seasoned politicians, understand and know that one loss does not make any difference," he said.

"The regional parties also see that this is the time to strengthen each other. The last defeat (in Haryana) has helped the INDIA parties unite further," he added.

He stressed that all the INDIA constituents saw what the Congress is capable of in setting the narrative during the Lok Sabha polls held in April-May.

"One swallow does not a summer make," another senior leader said, quoting an idiom.

Communist Party of India leader D Raja, however, called for introspection after the Haryana defeat of the Congress and laid stress on unity among the partners of the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance.

"After the Haryana defeat, the Congress and other Opposition parties of the INDIA bloc, including the CPI, should do serious introspection on the need for unity and seat sharing by all parties," Raja told PTI.

"Why does seat sharing not take place in a mutually-accommodative spirit? In a parliamentary democracy, elections are important and every party would like to participate in an election, have a sizeable presence in Parliament and state assemblies.

"People should realise that unity is important for the INDIA opposition bloc. Unity is not an option, it is imperative to defeat the BJP. After Haryana, the Congress should have made serious introspection and learnt its lessons," he said.

The counting of the votes polled in Maharashtra and Jharkhand will be taken up on November 23.