2027 Presidency: Tinubu, Atiku, Peter Obi Redraw Electoral Battle Lines, Details Emerge

• President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, Atiku Abubakar, and Peter Obi are all stepping up efforts to expand beyond the states they each won in the 2023 presidential election
• The APC is targeting at least 20 states in 2027, pointing to nine governors who have since defected to the ruling party as evidence of a stronger structure
• The NDC's Obidient Movement coordinator cited Rabiu Kwankwaso's alignment with Obi as a factor that could shift votes in the North

Legit.ng journalist Ridwan Adeola Yusuf has over nine years of experience covering politics, elections, public affairs, and governance in Nigeria and Africa.

FCT, Abuja - President Bola Tinubu, former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar, and former Anambra State governor Peter Obi are each working to grow their support bases beyond what they achieved in 2023, as the contest for the 2027 presidential election takes shape.

All three candidates are building on different political assets. Tinubu will fly the All Progressives Congress (APC) flag, Atiku is running under the African Democratic Congress (ADC), and Obi will contest on the platform of the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC).

2027 election: Tinubu targets more states

In 2023, Tinubu won 8,794,726 votes across 12 states, including Rivers, Borno, Oyo and Jigawa. Atiku followed with 6,984,520 votes and 12 states, among them Kaduna, Katsina, Adamawa and Sokoto. Obi polled 6,101,533 votes and carried 11 states plus the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), winning in Enugu, Lagos, Anambra, Delta and Plateau, among others.

Per The Punch in a report on Sunday, September 20, an anonymous APC official stated that the party's structures were far more solid than they were two years ago, citing a wave of gubernatorial defections. Nine sitting governors, including Plateau's Caleb Mutfwang, Kano's Abba Kabir Yusuf, Delta's Sheriff Oborevwori, Enugu's Peter Mbah, and Bayelsa's Douye Diri, have since crossed to the APC from the parties that brought them to power in 2023.

"The target is 20 states on the average," the official said, adding that the party now controls close to 31 governors compared to about 22 in the last election cycle.

North-Central APC Forum Chairman Saleh Zazzaga specifically named Plateau, Nasarawa and Benue as states the party expects to add to its 2023 haul. He also said Tinubu would sweep all six South-West states, having won only four in 2023.

Atiku, Peter Obi project gains

On Atiku's side, ADC's immediate past national chairman Ralph Nwosu cited an internal poll suggesting the former vice-president would take 63 per cent of the national vote and secure at least 25 per cent in 28 states.

"Atiku now has stronger structures than in 2023, and while he won 12 states then, he is going to win in 28 states this time around," Nwosu said.

Atiku's media aides, Paul Ibe and Phrank Shaibu, did not respond to requests for comment.

The NDC camp is equally optimistic. Obidient Movement National Coordinator Yinusa Tanko said the addition of former Kano governor Rabiu Kwankwaso to Obi's coalition had significantly broadened the party's reach in the North. "In the last election, we didn't have people like Kwankwaso, but we have him now," Tanko said, speaking on Thursday, September 17.

He added that the NDC was fielding more candidates in 2027, with several described as competitive in northern states, and maintained that the party remained on course to win Lagos again.

Read more on 2027 election

• 2027 election: Peter Obi speaks on rumoured agreement with Goodluck Jonathan to sack President Tinubu
• "2027 Not turn of south east": Umahi declares as Peter Obi releases bold statement
• 2027 election: VDM warns Nigerians about Goodluck Jonathan and PDP, “he is sponsored by Tinubu”

ChatGPT predicts winner of 2027 election

Earlier, Legit.ng reported that ChatGPT predicted that the APC would likely win Nigeria's 2027 presidential election, using the Four Horsemen framework.

It cited the opposition coalition but said the APC has the edge due to possible low voter turnout and the Tinubu administration's efforts to stabilise the economy.