Tinubu’s 2027 Chances: Analyst Names 23 States He Could Win, Including Key Swing States

• Political analyst Samuel Yusuf listed 23 states where he believes President Tinubu holds a strong chance of winning in 2027
• Governor defections from the PDP to the APC in several states feature prominently among the reasons cited for Tinubu's projected gains
• Key swing states from the 2023 election, including Plateau, Kaduna, and Edo, appear on the analyst's list with detailed reasoning

Legit.ng journalist Adekunle Dada has over eight years of experience covering metro, government policy, and international issues

Bauchi State - Political analyst Samuel Yusuf has outlined 23 states where he believes President Bola Tinubu could secure victory in the 2027 presidential election.

Yusuf cited a combination of governor defections, APC political structures, and opposition fragmentation as the driving forces behind his projections.

The Bauchi-based analyst made this known during an exclusive chat with Legit.ng on Friday, October 30, 2026.

Northern states where Tinubu could gain ground

Yusuf identified Bauchi as a potential gain for Tinubu, pointing to the APC's renewed political consolidation, the influence of Professor Ali Pate, Senator Sheikh Yahaya Jingir, and Yakubu Dogara, alongside the lingering goodwill from former President Muhammadu Buhari's time in office.

In Kaduna, Governor Uba Sani's political machinery and sustained engagement with Southern Kaduna communities could help the president recover votes that went to Peter Obi in 2023.

The analyst placed significant weight on recent defections. In Taraba, Governor Agbu Kefas's move from the PDP to the APC opens access to an established grassroots network. Zamfara follows a similar logic, with Governor Dauda Lawal's defection paired with Senator Abdulaziz Yari's influence.

In Adamawa, Governor Ahmadu Fintiri's switch, combined with Nuhu Ribadu's presence, could erode the opposition's traditional hold on the state.

Borno, Yobe, Jigawa, Kebbi, Katsina, Niger, and Sokoto round out Yusuf's northern projections, with each state anchored by sitting APC governors, longstanding party structures, or the Buhari legacy in the region.

South and Middle Belt projections

In Plateau, Governor Caleb Mutfwang's defection to the APC is described as a major realignment, with Nentawe Yilwada's influence potentially unlocking voting blocs that backed Peter Obi heavily in 2023. Benue and Kwara also appear on the list, though the analyst provided less detail on those two states.

In the South-West, Yusuf cited Ekiti as one of Tinubu's strongest prospects given the APC's dominance and Governor Biodun Oyebanji's political machinery.

Osun presents a more surprising entry, with Governor Ademola Adeleke's endorsement of Tinubu and his grassroots reach seen as potentially flipping a state the PDP previously held.

For the South-South, the analyst flagged Rivers as a key battleground, pointing to a possible reconciliation between Nyesom Wike and Governor Siminalayi Fubara as a factor that could benefit Tinubu.

Bayelsa, where Governor Douye Diri defected to the APC, and Cross River, where Governor Bassey Otu controls the political structure, are also on the list. Akwa Ibom features as well, with Yusuf noting the state's political realignment towards the APC as a significant advantage.

In the South-East, Yusuf pointed to Imo, where Governor Hope Uzodimma's control of the state machinery and his prominent role in Tinubu's 2023 campaign make it a strong prospect.

Edo completes the list, with Governor Monday Okpebholo's APC structures and a fragmented opposition seen as helping Tinubu recover ground lost to Peter Obi two years ago.

Earlier, a new political forecast projected that President Tinubu will win 20 states in the 2027 election inclduig Lagos which he lost in 2023.

Why Tinubu will win 2027 presidential election

Meanwhile, Legit.ng also reported that PRP presidential candidate Donald Duke warned that a split opposition vote in 2027 could hand President Tinubu another term.

The former Cross River state governor pointed to the 2023 election as proof that fragmented opposition bids benefit the ruling party, citing Atiku, Obi and Kwankwaso's separate runs.

Duke said leading opposition figures were preparing for inauguration but warned they were heading for disappointment.