Analyst Reacts to Terrorists' Alleged Ceasefire With Federal Government

• Nigerian journalist Oluwafemi Popoola examined reports of an alleged secret ceasefire between the government and a Boko Haram faction led by Ibrahim Bakura Doro
• The New Humanitarian reported that the truce had been in place since June, linked to the release of 360 civilians abducted from Ngoshe in Borno state
• Popoola raised concerns about whether the reported agreement included disarmament, accountability, or guarantees for communities affected by the insurgency

Legit.ng journalist Ridwan Adeola Yusuf has over four years of experience covering security issues and counterinsurgency in Nigeria and across Africa.

FCT, Abuja - Nigerian journalist and columnist Oluwafemi Popoola has questioned whether the Nigerian government's reported secret ceasefire with a Boko Haram faction represents a calculated negotiation or an act of capitulation to armed insurgents.

Sharing his thoughts on Monday, September 14, Popoola weighed in on a report by The New Humanitarian, published September 7, which described an alleged undisclosed agreement between the federal government and the Boko Haram faction led by Ibrahim Bakura Doro.

The New Humanitarian reported that the arrangement has been in place since June, coinciding with a noticeable drop in attacks across parts of southern Borno state. The report linked the ceasefire to negotiations surrounding the release of 360 civilians kidnapped from Ngoshe in Borno state. The publication also alleged that a N5 billion ransom changed hands, a claim Nigerian authorities have denied. The government has made no public acknowledgement of the ceasefire.

Analyst raises questions over Boko Haram

Popoola noted to Legit.ng that Al Jazeera had also reported on the alleged arrangement, although the Nigerian government has continued to maintain publicly that it does not negotiate with Boko Haram.

He said:

"Coincidences are innocent until examined closely. Sometimes they are merely accidents; at other times, they are clues pointing towards a story we have not yet fully understood.

"Historians are particularly cautious about treating events in isolation because patterns often reveal more than individual incidents.

"J.H. Elliott, one of the great historians of early-modern Europe, devoted much of his work to understanding how seemingly separate developments could converge to produce larger historical consequences. That caution is useful here.

"The relative calm in parts of the North-East, the reported secret contacts with Boko Haram and the proximity of the 2027 elections may all have perfectly innocent explanations. But when three politically significant developments arrive at roughly the same time, Nigerians have every right to ask whether coincidence is really the whole explanation."

The columnist drew on past international examples, including peace talks involving the Taliban, the Irish Republican Army, and Colombia's FARC, to argue that engaging armed groups is not the same as surrendering to them. However, he expressed doubt about whether Nigeria's reported engagement could produce a durable outcome without disarmament, independent verification, accountability mechanisms, and concrete protections for communities that have borne the brunt of the insurgency.

Popoola also acknowledged that there may be legitimate humanitarian grounds for negotiations, particularly where such talks can secure the freedom of abducted civilians and limit further violence.

Popoola questions Boko Haram ceasefire timing

The columnist raised concerns about when the ceasefire was reportedly struck, noting that security is expected to be a central issue in Nigeria's 2027 elections. He cited The New Humanitarian's reporting on the political backdrop surrounding the alleged deal.

Popoola cautioned that a temporary drop in violence should not be read as a sign that the insurgency is over, arguing that a short-term lull falls well short of a genuine peace settlement.

He closed by questioning the dynamics of the negotiation itself, asking whether the government engaged Boko Haram from a position of strength or whether the group's use of mass kidnapping had given it enough leverage to force the federal government into a conversation it had publicly refused to have.

Legit.ng has previously reported on security developments in Borno state and the ongoing efforts to address the decade-long Boko Haram insurgency in Nigeria's north-east.

Read more on insecurity in Nigeria

• US interference: Ex-military head of state breaks silence on what Donald Trump must do to Nigeria
• The Country of Particular Concern 'trap': What the US Senate got wrong about Nigeria’s crisis
• List of killed Imams and mosques attacked by bandits that led to significant loss of lives

Boko Haram kills 10 in Adamawa village

Legit.ng earlier reported that Boko Haram militants attacked Zaranga village in Gombi LGA of Adamawa state, shooting residents and burning houses.

11 bodies have been recovered so far, with search teams and security personnel still combing the surrounding forest for missing persons.

The Adamawa state police command spokesperson had not responded to calls for confirmation as of the time this report was filed.