Poll Gives Yotova 50.2% Ahead of the Presidential Vote in Bulgaria

A Sova Harris poll puts the Iliyana Yotova-Kiril Valchev presidential ticket at 50.2% support, compared with 23.7% for Andrey Gyurov and Georgi Kandev and 12.7% for Kostadin Kostadinov and Petar Volgin.

The representative survey of Bulgaria’s adult population was conducted by Sova Harris from September 23 to 28, 2026, among 1,000 Bulgarian citizens through standardized face-to-face interviews in respondents’ homes. The maximum margin of error for a 50% relative share at a 95% confidence level is 3.1%. The poll was commissioned by the Trud newspaper.

According to the survey, 47.4% of respondents intend to vote. Rising prices are identified as the country’s leading issue, while the Bulgarian Orthodox Church is the institution with the highest level of public trust.

Iliyana Yotova has the highest approval rating among politicians at 45.7%, followed by Rumen Radev at 44.6%. Andrey Gyurov ranks third with 19.4%, followed by "Revival" leader Kostadin Kostadinov at 17.2%.

Krum Zarkov has a 15.2% trust rating, while Assen Vasilev is at 14.7%, Radan Kanev at 12.8%, Bozhidar Bozhanov at 12.6% and Ivaylo Mirchev at 12.5%. Radostin Vasilev has 11.1% support.

GERB leader Boyko Borissov has a trust rating of 10.0% after his decision for the party not to enter the presidential race. Ivelin Mihaylov is at 8.0%, while Delyan Peevski has 2.7%.

Vasil Tonchev, head of Sova Harris, said the survey indicates that fewer than half of voters have decided both to participate and which candidate they will support less than a month before the presidential election. Based on the population actually residing in Bulgaria, excluding Bulgarians abroad who remain on the electoral rolls, he estimated that slightly fewer than 2.5 million people would vote in the first round.

Tonchev said the core electorates of the leading tickets were becoming increasingly clear. Among respondents who had selected a presidential ticket, just over half backed Yotova and Valchev, about twice the level recorded for Gyurov and Kandev and four times the share for Kostadinov and Volgin.

The remaining 24 presidential tickets account for approximately 13.4% of the vote, according to the survey. Tonchev said the figures point toward a runoff because the law requires turnout of more than 50% of the electorate, including Bulgarian citizens living abroad. He said the results indicate that the two leading tickets, Yotova-Valchev and Gyurov-Kandev, would proceed to the second round.

The survey also measures confidence in state institutions. The Bulgarian Orthodox Church leads with 58%, followed by the police at 47.4% and the army at 46.9%. The Presidency has 46.8% trust.

The government records 35.1% approval, which Tonchev described as retaining the level of trust received during the parliamentary elections. Parliament has 20.2% approval, while the judiciary has 18.8% and the Prosecutor’s Office 16.2%.

High prices and inflation are identified by 53.7% of respondents as the country’s most serious problem. The survey analysis says declining household incomes are creating significant difficulties for families and that citizens expect the executive branch to respond with timely measures.

While slightly more than one-third of respondents regard the government’s performance as reasonably successful, 44.6% take a critical view. The analysis says the pace of implementing measures does not meet the expectations of a substantial share of voters.

Rumen Radev’s position on the war in Ukraine, that a military solution cannot succeed and that EU leaders should establish diplomatic contacts for dialogue with Russia, receives support from 58.4% of respondents. Some 18% disagree, while 23.6% remain undecided.

The survey also finds that 46.5% believe Ukraine should reach peace with Russia by accepting territorial concessions. Another 26.1% disagree with that position and 27.4% are undecided. The analysis notes that support for diplomatic dialogue is higher, at 58.4%, than support for the specific condition involving territorial concessions.

A total of 65.8% of respondents disagree with Ursula von der Leyen’s statement that Russian energy resources are toxic to Europe and that European countries should abandon them in the long term. Only 12% support her position, while 22.2% are undecided.

Public opinion is nearly evenly divided over Yotova’s decision to raise the issue of a pardon for the drug dealer from Petrich. Positive assessments exceed negative ones by 3.6 percentage points, while nearly one-quarter of respondents have no opinion.

The disclosure of information about the “Petrohan” case during the presidential campaign receives a more clearly positive response. Some 43.7% consider the disclosure appropriate, while a quarter are undecided, with the difference between positive and negative assessments standing at 12.6 percentage points.

The survey analysis says respondents distinguish between the two cases. Approval of the way the “Petrohan” issue was raised is higher and disapproval lower than in the case involving the pardon issue.

According to Tonchev’s assessment, the three leading presidential tickets have different-sized core support bases, while none appears to be attracting a substantial number of peripheral voters. He said attitudes recorded during the recent parliamentary elections remain present in the current political environment.

Tonchev also said voters expect a change from the model seen in recent years and that the prevailing view favors greater consolidation between the executive and presidential branches rather than a relationship based on checks and balances.