Brazil votes as Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro battle in tight presidential race

Brazilians are voting in a fiercely contested presidential election between Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro. The result will shape Brazil's political direction and may still require a runoff.

In Short

• Nearly 159 million voters are choosing president, governors and national lawmakers
• Runoff voting on October 25 follows if no candidate gets majority
• Bolsonaro campaign stresses Trump ties and rare minerals deals with Washington

Brazilians began voting on Sunday in a high-stakes presidential election between incumbent Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, two ideological rivals who are both seen as having a chance of winning outright. If no candidate gets more than 50 per cent of the vote, the top two will face a runoff on October 25. Ten other candidates are expected to win much smaller shares of the vote.

Almost 159 million Brazilians are eligible to vote in the contest, which is also deciding 27 state governors, members of state legislatures, all 513 members of the lower house of Congress and 54 of the country’s 81 senators. Bolsonaro, 45, is the son of former far-right President Jair Bolsonaro and an ally of US President Donald Trump. Lula, 80, is contesting his seventh presidential election and has strengthened Brazil’s ties with Beijing.

The campaign has underlined a wider political divide. While Bolsonaro has leaned into his alliance with Trump, Lula has criticised Washington. The incumbent has often spoken of the risks of US intervention in the Brazilian election after the Trump administration imposed high tariffs on Brazilian exports, revoked the visa of Brazil’s ambassador in Washington and sanctioned a Supreme Court justice who led the investigation that ended in the sentencing of Jair Bolsonaro, Lula’s predecessor.

After casting his vote, Lula told journalists that he needs “to do double of what we have done” if re-elected and said he was confident of winning in the first round. Flavio Bolsonaro has highlighted his proximity to the White House, though he denies his campaign received help from the US government. He has said Brazil needs better deals with the Trump administration, including in the rare minerals sector, where Brazil estimates its deposits hold up to 21 million tonnes, second only to China. He has also campaigned on releasing his father from his 27-year prison sentence for attempting a coup and bringing him back into politics. “Brazil needs change. Brazil can’t stand so much suffering,” he told reporters at the Rio de Janeiro voting centre where he cast his vote.

Voters reflected the sharp split in the race. Rosane Wink, 67, a retired engineer and lifelong conservative, backed Bolsonaro and his promise to classify criminal groups as terrorist organisations. “It’s a kind of terrorism that they’re doing with us,” she said in Rio de Janeiro, adding that last month a criminal held a gun to her stomach, bit her hand and took her wedding ring. In Brasilia, 50-year-old mobile phone vendor Maria Ribeiro said she voted for Bolsonaro because she wanted the freedom to express her Evangelical religion. “I voted for his father, and I don’t regret it,” she said.

Lula’s supporters pointed to his social policies and his stance against Trump. Rosangela Resende da Rocha, 69, who was previously a homemaker, said she supported Lula’s programmes for the “less fortunate” and backed his opposition to Trump. “That crazy guy wants to come in here to buy our country, so that our country will be like it is over there,” she said at a voting centre in Brasilia. “He won’t succeed if Lula wins.” Catia Oliveira, 61, who voted from Portugal, said Lula’s social programmes remained important even for those who did not need them directly. “Thank God I do not need (the help of) social programs, but I vote for those that need them: health, education, basic sanitation, housing, food,” she said.

Analysts said the final stretch of the campaign could prove decisive. Thomas Traumann, a political consultant in Rio de Janeiro, said late mistakes by either candidate or their allies could sway undecided voters. “Polarisation in Brazil created a trap. There’s no third candidate. You only have two options, and they fight each other in an atmosphere that becomes worse and worse,” he said. “It is much more a competition of accusations than a competition of proposals.” Four years ago, Lula defeated Jair Bolsonaro by 2.1 million votes, a margin of just under 2 percentage points, when many Brazilians were unhappy with the then president’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic, his repeated threats to democracy, his attacks on the electronic voting system and the state of the economy as inflation rose.

This time, Lula faces a tougher contest amid an affordability crisis and a corruption scandal involving the same justice who led the investigation into Bolsonaro. Carlos Melo, a political science professor at Insper University in Sao Paulo, said some voters had grown tired of Lula as he seeks a fourth non-consecutive term. “Many in the Lula campaign were not expecting such a difficult election a few weeks ago, and it is clear to them that the present election is a tough battle and the next ones, without Lula, could be even more so,” Melo said. Bolsonaro, meanwhile, has faced several corruption allegations, including claims that a disgraced banker paid him millions of dollars to produce a film on his father’s life. More recently, he has come under criticism from Roman Catholics who fear he may make too many concessions to his evangelical base. As Brazil voted, the election remained closely fought, with the contest also shaping the country’s wider political direction.

With PTI Inputs

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