Iran still holds thousands of missiles despite heavy war losses: US intel

The battlefield may have gone quiet, but concerns are far from over. Fresh intelligence suggests Iran's hidden missile strength could resurface, casting a long shadow over fragile ceasefire talks and regional stability.

In Short

• US officials say Iran still has thousands of ballistic missiles
• Many missile launchers damaged but some can be repaired
• Iran’s missile inventory roughly halved during conflict

As ceasefire efforts gather pace, a quieter battlefield is giving way to a deeper concern - how much of Iran’s firepower still remains out of sight.

US intelligence assessments suggest that despite weeks of strikes, Iran continues to hold thousands of ballistic missiles, many of them potentially retrievable from underground storage sites, reported the Wall Street Journal.

The findings come as Washington pushes to secure a ceasefire that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz and prevent further escalation across the region.

US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth said earlier this week that Iran’s missile programme was “functionally destroyed”, calling it “depleted and decimated and almost completely ineffective”.

But intelligence inputs point to a more layered situation.

WSJ quoted officials saying that more than half of Iran’s missile launchers have been destroyed, damaged or left buried underground. Even so, several of those systems could be repaired or brought back into use.

ARSENAL REDUCED, NOT REMOVED

The conflict has cut Iran’s missile inventory roughly in half. Yet, US and Israeli officials say Tehran still retains thousands of medium- and short-range ballistic missiles.

Many are believed to be stored in underground complexes, shielded from strikes and ready to be deployed if tensions rise again.

Iran also holds a smaller stock of cruise missiles, which could be used to target ships in the Persian Gulf or US troops if talks collapse.

DRONES DOWN, BUT OPTIONS OPEN

Iran’s one-way attack drone fleet has dropped to well under half of its original size, after sustained use and repeated strikes on production facilities.

Even then, US officials believe Tehran could look to Russia for similar systems, keeping its options open despite battlefield losses.

‘THEY RECOVER FASTER THAN EXPECTED’

Experts tracking the conflict say Iran’s ability to adapt remains a key factor.

“They have shown a remarkable ability to innovate and reconstitute their forces quickly,” said Kenneth Pollack. “They are a much more formidable opponent than most Middle East militaries other than the Israelis.”

While a full recovery may take time, US analysts believe Iran can still field parts of its missile capability.

SCALE OF STRIKES, LIMITS OF IMPACT

US and Israeli strikes have been extensive.

Gen. Dan Caine said more than 13,000 munitions were used to hit missile and drone storage, naval assets and defence industry targets.

Israeli officials say about two-thirds of Iran’s missile launchers were taken out of action. But many of those trapped underground could still be recovered.

Iran is also estimated to retain over 1,000 medium-range missiles from a pre-war stock of about 2,500.

UNDERGROUND SHIELD REMAINS A CHALLENGE

A major challenge for US and Israeli forces has been Iran’s deeply buried missile complexes.

Air strikes have often focused on sealing tunnel exits rather than destroying entire facilities, leaving parts of the infrastructure intact.

Even so, Iran’s launch capacity was reduced during the war—from dozens of missiles a day to roughly 10 to 15.

TALKS CONTINUE UNDER LONG SHADOW

The intelligence assessments come as US Vice President JD Vance and envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner head to Islamabad for talks with Iran.

The White House maintains that recent military action has strengthened its hand.

“This profound military success has allowed negotiations with maximum leverage,” spokeswoman Anna Kelly said, adding that Washington remains hopeful if Iran engages in good faith.

WHAT COMES NEXT

Iran’s ability to rebuild its arsenal will depend on external support, including possible backing from Russia or China, and on whether sanctions remain in place.

Tehran has demanded relief from sanctions as part of any agreement.

For now, even as diplomacy moves forward, the presence of a reduced but still potent missile force ensures that the path to lasting peace remains uncertain.

- Ends