Is Bangladesh becoming 'another Pakistan' on India's east?

Sheikh Hasina's son Sajeeb Wazed Joy, addressing a media event in Delhi, boldly declared that Bangladesh has become the 'new Pakistan' on India's eastern front. Undoubtedly, ties between Dhaka and Islamabad have undergone a major reset. But what's the reality? We explain.

In Short

• Sheikh Hasina's son calls Bangladesh 'new Pakistan' on India's eastern front
• ISI's influence in Bangladesh growing, raising security concerns for India
• India says keeping close watch on Pak's reported activities in region

Nearly 55 years ago, Sheikh Mujibur Rahman led the political struggle that helped liberate Bangladesh from Pakistan. On Wednesday, Mujibur's grandson, Sajeeb Wazed Joy, said the country had become the "new Pakistan" on India's eastern front. The irony is hard to miss. As Delhi and Dhaka still navigate an uneasy reset under Tarique Rahman, Bangladesh has deepened engagement with Pakistan - the country it fought against to become independent. Is Bangladesh returning to the ghosts of its past?

During the regime of ousted prime minister Sheikh Hasina, widely seen as the golden period in India-Bangladesh ties, the influence of extremist groups and Pakistan was largely kept in check. Following her ouster in August 2024 amid a youth uprising, the interim government led by Muhammad Yunus pandered towards Pakistan. Engagements have continued under the BNP government.

'BANGLADESH HAS BECOME ANOTHER PAKISTAN'

What is of utmost concern for India is the long shadow of Pakistan's notorious spy agency, the Inter Services Intelligence (ISI), falling across Bangladesh's political and security landscape. Wazed, Hasina's son and also her adviser, underlined it in no uncertain terms.

Speaking virtually at an event in New Delhi, Wazed claimed that foreign intel agencies, particularly Pakistan's ISI, had been given a free rein in Bangladesh.

"What should concern India most is that Bangladesh has become another Pakistan on its eastern front," he said, calling the country a "failed state".

Issuing a graver warning, Wazed said in the next decades, terrorists would enter India from Bangladesh instead of Pakistan. "Hizb-ut-Tahrir marches openly. Al-Qaida operatives speak at public rallies," Wazed said.

Hearing Wazed's speech was Hasina herself. Making her first public address since her ouster, Hasina announced that she would return to Bangladesh this December, despite the risk of imprisonment or death.

India, however, did not dismiss Wazed's warning and said it was keeping a "close watch" on activities in the region. So far, there has been no red flag from India's security agencies suggesting Bangladesh constitutes a terrorism threat.

Bangladesh reacted sharply, saying it would be a "client state". Pakistan, as expected, rejected allegations of ISI interference in Bangladesh. "India is paranoid about ISI. Maybe the infection has caught him (Wazed)," Pakistan said.

PAKISTAN ISI'S SHADOW ON BANGLADESH

Experts told IndiaToday.in that Wazed was not completely off the mark. However, they also underlined that unlike Pakistan's "hybrid regime", the civilian government in Bangladesh still calls the shots.

Former ambassador Anil Trigunayat, who has served at the Indian mission in Bangladesh, said there were reports of Pakistan's ISI already setting up "regional-type offices" in Bangladesh.

"I think he (Wazed) is aware that the ISI has been there (in Bangladesh) for a long time. During his mother's time, its activities might have been less, but it was very much part of it. But during Yunus's time, they have significantly increased their presence," the former envoy told IndiaToday.in.

He underscored that Bangladesh could prove to be another challenge (apart from Pakistan and China) if the ISI gets embedded there.

In fact, over the past year, several Pakistani military leaders have made a beeline to Dhaka. It started with the visit by ISI chief Lt General Asim Malik in January 2025 - a first by the head of Pakistan's intel agency in decades.

It came close on the heels of a Bangladeshi military delegation visiting Rawalpindi, where it met Pakistani army chief Asim Munir as well as the heads of the air force and navy.

The back-to-back visits were viewed as Bangladesh's bid to build an intelligence-sharing network with Pakistan.

However, the most serious red flag has been the creation of a dedicated ISI special cell within the Pakistan High Commission in Dhaka, according to a report in News18.

The cell was reportedly set up following a four-day visit to Dhaka in October 2025 by Pakistan's then head of the joint chiefs of staff committee, General Sahir Shamshad Mirza.

RISING ISLAMISM IN BANGLADESH

The pace at which ties between Bangladesh and Pakistan grew closer has been unusually fast.

A direct Karachi-Chittagong shipping route was revived after decades to boost trade. A 14-year suspension on direct commercial flights was also lifted. A Biman Bangladesh flight from Dhaka landed in Karachi earlier this year in January.

On the other hand, both countries have also agreed to grant visa-free access to diplomats and military personnel.

Defence analyst Sandeep Unnithan said Wazed's remarks should be viewed in the context of the growing influence of Islamism in Bangladesh's politics and the military.

"They have tried to create an Islamised version of Pakistan, where religion takes centre stage, while the economy takes a back seat. Religiosity has become more important," Unnithan told IndiaToday.in.

To buttress his point, Unnithan cited the appearance of Bangladesh army chief General Waker-Uz-Zaman. Once clean-shaven, he now sports a full beard.

"You only have to look at Waqar-Uz-Zaman's beard. He was clean-shaven until a few months ago, but suddenly he has started growing a longer, distinctly Islamic beard. That is an indication of where things are headed in Bangladesh," Unnithan said.

In fact, there has also been a marked shift in the army chief's secular stance. In 2024, just days after Hasina's ouster amid unrest, Zaman emphasised that Bangladeshis should follow the ideals of Lord Krishna and live together in harmony.

A year later, there was a complete about-turn. In his more recent speeches, the Bangladesh army chief has urged the military to embrace Islamic values. The army has also raised a new unit with four companies named after the first four Islamic Caliphs - Umar, Abu Bakr, Ali, and Uthman.

It is this Islamist footprint, seemingly exported from Pakistan, that experts have warned of.

Lieutenant General Manik Kumar Das (retd), in an article for Organiser, said the increasing radicalisation of the Bangladesh army had a lot to do with the resumption of ties with Pakistan. He said even the battle cry of the new battalions in the army has been changed to 'Allahu Akbar' from 'Joy Bangla'.

However, he said it would be completely wrong to assert that the ISI had no presence during Hasina's tenure. The ISI always had a deep footprint in Dhaka through the radical Jamaat-e-Islami, which is now the main opposition party in Bangladesh. Hasina had banned the Jamaat-e-Islami under the anti-terrorism law, but the Yunus administration lifted it.

"The attempts at radicalisation were low-key under Sheikh Hasina's regime. However, after her ouster... the Bangladesh army exhibited more eagerness to embrace Islamist traditions and similar recruitment narratives," Lt Gen Das wrote in his article.

HOW SHOULD INDIA LOOK AT THE SITUATION?

So, how should India tackle the situation?

Former ambassador Anil Trigunayat underlined that with the "golden period" over, India should try to have a "realistic" and "more pragmatic" relationship with Bangladesh. He said the present leadership is not "very friendly" to India, but it is more pragmatic.

"So, therefore, we will have to find a meeting ground where our security concerns are addressed by them and their developmental concerns are addressed by India," he said.

The porous 4,000-km-long border remains a key challenge even though India has ramped up border fencing and deployed advanced surveillance technology and drones.

So far, there has been limited engagement with the Tarique Rahman-led government. The Prime Minister chose China for his first foreign visit in a departure from tradition. In the past, most Bangladeshi leaders always made New Delhi their first stop.

The first high-profile interaction happened in April, when Bangladesh foreign minister Dr Khalilur Rahman held talks with External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar and NSA Ajit Doval in Delhi.

Despite its growing closeness with Pakistan, Bangladesh cannot escape its geographical reality. Regional security, trade, connectivity and affordable medical treatments in India continue to underpin bilateral ties.

Moreover, Delhi is still Dhaka's second largest trade partner. Bangladesh also remains the largest recipient of developmental aid from India.

CONCLUSION

During my interaction with Sandeep Unnithan, he highlighted a crucial aspect of Bangladesh's changing landscape - its economy.

Under Hasina, Bangladesh's economy was growing at over 6%. Islamic fundamentalism was kept in check, there was sustained economic growth, high foreign exchange reserves, and per capita income.

In fact, at one point, Unnithan said, Bangladesh was doing better than Pakistan. Then, several Pakistani commentators went as far as to say that Bangladesh had actually become the Pakistan of Jinnah's dreams.

Is that prediction now becoming a reality - albeit for all the wrong reasons? Sheikh Hasina's son Wazed certainly seems to think so.

- Ends