TMC lost Bengal and the Muslim vote. But who gained from it?

Two things happened in the 2026 West Bengal polls: the BJP's consolidation of Hindu votes and the end of the Trinamool Congress's absolute dominance over Muslim voters.

In Short

• Muslim vote split among Congress, Left, AIMIM, AJUP aided BJP gains
• Humayun Kabir’s AJUP disrupted TMC dominance in Murshidabad
• Congress and Left revived in Muslim-majority seats, denting TMC

Two things defined the 2026 West Bengal Assembly election: the BJP’s consolidation of Hindu votes and the collapse of the Trinamool Congress’s near-total hold over Muslim voters.

The shift was most visible in Muslim-dominated constituencies across Murshidabad, Malda and Uttar Dinajpur, where a fragmented Muslim vote, split between the Congress, Left parties, AIMIM, ISF and Humayun Kabir’s Aam Janata Unnayan Party (AJUP), opened the door for BJP gains.

Take Murshidabad’s Beldanga seat. With Muslims estimated to make up nearly 63 per cent of the electorate, the BJP’s Bharat Kumar Jhawar still emerged victorious. In 2021, the BJP had secured 28.9 per cent votes while the TMC won comfortably with over 55 per cent. This time, the BJP’s vote share rose to 31.9 per cent, while the TMC crashed to 26 per cent. The Congress secured 17.5 per cent and AJUP polled over 20 per cent, effectively splitting the Muslim vote.

Beldanga reflected a broader statewide pattern: the BJP largely retained and consolidated Hindu votes, while Muslim voters no longer rallied behind the TMC as a single bloc.

THE MUSLIM VOTE SPLIT HURT THE TMC

Several seats across Bengal showed how opposition Muslim candidates cut into the TMC’s traditional support base.

In Kandi, another Murshidabad constituency with a sizeable Muslim population, sitting TMC MLA Apurba Sarkar lost after his vote share nearly halved from 51 per cent in 2021 to 31 per cent in 2026. The BJP improved only marginally, but AIMIM’s entry and Congress gains fragmented anti-BJP votes.

A similar story unfolded in Jangipur, where BJP’s vote share jumped sharply from 22 per cent to 42 per cent. Congress candidate Md Imran Ali secured more than 31,000 votes, eating into the TMC’s support and helping the BJP defeat sitting MLA Jakir Hossain.

In Uttar Dinajpur’s Karandighi, the BJP won by nearly 20,000 votes as CPI(M)’s Md Sahabuddin polled over 39,000 votes. The TMC’s vote share dropped dramatically from 55 per cent to around 35 per cent.

Even where the TMC retained seats, its dominance weakened significantly.

In Jalangi, the party’s victory margin collapsed from more than 80,000 votes in 2021 to around 21,000 in 2026. Combined Congress and CPI(M) votes exceeded one lakh — more than what the winning TMC candidate secured.

Bhagawangola also saw the TMC’s winning margin halve as Congress and CPI(M) Muslim candidates together drew substantial support.

The same trend repeated in Nalhati, Ratua, Ashoknagar and Haripal, where ISF and Congress candidates chipped away at the TMC’s minority support base. In Malda’s Muslim-heavy Sujapur, the TMC’s vote share dropped by nearly 23 percentage points, while Congress and ISF emerged as the main beneficiaries.

THE HUMAYUN KABIR FACTOR

One of the biggest surprises of the election was Humayun Kabir and his AJUP.

Before polling, Kabir appeared politically isolated after a sting controversy, AIMIM distancing itself from him, and the TMC branding him a BJP proxy. Yet he emerged as a significant disruptor in Murshidabad politics.

Kabir won Rejinagar by nearly 59,000 votes, pushing the TMC to third place. He also won Nowda by more than 27,000 votes, again relegating the TMC to third.

In Hariharpara, AJUP emerged as the TMC’s primary challenger in a constituency where Muslim votes split between the TMC, AJUP and CPI(M), while the BJP remained a distant third.

Even in Kaliganj, which the TMC retained, its vote share dropped sharply. AJUP, CPI(M) and Congress candidates collectively cut deep into the ruling party’s traditional Muslim base.

Political analyst Abdul Matin of Jadavpur University argued that AJUP’s rise may be temporary and driven by a narrow sectarian appeal. But in this election, Kabir undeniably altered the political arithmetic in several Muslim-majority constituencies.

CONGRESS AND LEFT REVIVE IN POCKETS

The Congress and Left also staged a quiet comeback in parts of Bengal by fielding Muslim candidates in minority-heavy constituencies.

In Farakka, the contest eventually became a straight fight between the Congress and BJP, with the TMC slipping to third place. Congress candidate Motab Shaikh won the seat by over 8,000 votes.

The Congress also won Raninagar, while CPI(M)’s Mostafijur Rahman clinched Domkal, another Muslim-majority seat. In Hansan, Suti and Murarai, Congress and Left candidates significantly dented the TMC’s prospects.

WHY MUSLIM VOTERS DRIFTED AWAY FROM THE TMC

In 2021, the backdrop of anti-CAA and anti-NRC protests helped consolidate Muslim voters behind Mamata Banerjee. But the mood shifted in 2026.

Political observers and academics point to multiple reasons: anger over the Waqf Board issue, dissatisfaction among Muslim OBC youth over reservation concerns, unemployment, lack of development, and growing resentment at being treated as a “captive vote bank”.

Dr Mohammad Reyaz of Aliah University noted that in many Muslim-majority seats, nearly 90 per cent of Hindu votes consolidated behind the BJP, leaving the TMC squeezed between a united Hindu vote and a fragmented Muslim vote.

Reyaz also argued that the TMC’s attempts to politically isolate the ISF alienated followers of Furfura Sharif, an influential religious centre for sections of Bengali Muslims.

Abdul Matin added that Mamata Banerjee’s remarks during protests linked to the Waqf Board issue did not go down well with many Muslim voters, who began looking for alternatives in Muslim-dominated constituencies.

Sociologist Khalid Anis Ansari of Azim Premji University summed up the contradiction facing regional parties: they rely heavily on Muslim votes, but hesitate to openly confront majoritarian politics for fear of alienating Hindu voters.

- Ends