Russia starts Duma vote as war and drone strikes strain economy

Russia has opened three days of parliamentary voting with United Russia expected to retain control. The poll is meant to project backing for the war even as drone strikes, economic strain and repression deepen unease.

In Short

• Yabloko was removed after opposing the war, eliminating open anti-war participation
• Ukrainian drone strikes damaged refineries, warehouses and logistics, worsening domestic disruption
• Higher taxes and borrowing reflect pressure from Russia's widening budget deficit

Russia begins three days of voting for its parliamentary election on Friday, with the result widely seen as decided in advance but the political backdrop far more difficult than in recent years. The war in Ukraine and repeated drone attacks have hurt the economy, damaged oil refineries and logistics hubs, and deepened public anxiety, even as the Kremlin moves to keep a tight grip on the first State Duma election since the 2022 invasion.

United Russia, the main Kremlin party, is expected to retain its overwhelming hold on the lower house of parliament, along with a few other parties that vote in line with President Vladimir Putin. Analysts say the Kremlin sees the election as a way to show public backing for the war and to legitimise its actions. In an address before the vote, Putin said: "Your choice and resolve will once again demonstrate that millions of people stand behind our fighters, that we are a united people, bound by shared values, historical memory, and love for the Motherland."

The Kremlin moved to crush even limited dissent before the vote. The only party that openly criticised the war, Yabloko, was first cleared by the Central Election Commission in July along with 10 other parties, but was later removed from the ballot by the Supreme Court after an appeal by the nationalist Motherland party. The appeal argued that Yabloko's anti-war stand was similar to calling for the violation of Russia's territorial integrity.

Kremlin watchers said the move pointed to tensions within the system between those who wanted some appearance of competition to lift turnout and those who feared open criticism of the war. Tatyana Stanovaya of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center said, "The risks that the campaign would turn into a struggle for and against peace - that is, a dispute about the war - were quite high, and this clearly was not part of the plan." Anti-war politicians have also faced jail or exile. Yabloko deputy chairman Maxim Kruglov was sentenced in June to seven years in prison for spreading false information about the Russian army. Last month, a court in the Pskov region sentenced Yabloko member Lev Shlosberg to more than 11 years in prison for speaking out against the war. Authorities have also barred many Yabloko members from running in single-seat races for the Duma and regional legislatures. Liberal politician Boris Nadezhdin, who tried to challenge Putin in the 2024 presidential election, left Russia last month after being labelled a "foreign agent", barred from office and fined for displaying "extremist symbols".

The pressure on the Kremlin has also grown because of a summer of Ukrainian long-range drone strikes that brought the war closer to daily life for many Russians. The attacks worsened economic problems as military spending lost its earlier boost. The government raised taxes and increased domestic borrowing to manage a growing budget deficit. Strikes on oil refineries triggered a serious fuel crisis that peaked in June, eased for a few weeks and then returned in August. Attacks on warehouses of online retailers Wildberries and Ozon added to the disruption, with hundreds of thousands of sellers losing their goods.

That has affected public mood. The independent Levada Center put Putin's approval rating at 76 per cent in August, down from 87 per cent in September 2025, though it remained high. Some senior figures also voiced concern. Andrei Klepach, chief economist at the state VEB.RF bank, warned at a seminar: "We won't win the competition in this war of attrition. Our costs are mounting. I'm almost sure that we will come to face a social crisis." He was dismissed a day after his comments were published.

Putin has acknowledged that attacks on oil refineries and logistics hubs caused significant damage, but said the economy could withstand it. He said Ukraine, by striking such infrastructure, had opened a "Pandora's box" and invited massive retaliation. Russia has since stepped up attacks on Kyiv and other cities with missiles and new jet-powered drones, taking advantage of Ukraine's shortage of defensive interceptors. It has also sharply increased strikes on Odesa and other Black Sea ports, disrupting exports of grain and other farm products.

As the impact of the attacks spread across Russia, fears grew that the Kremlin could order a new large-scale mobilisation. A partial mobilisation of 300,000 reservists in 2022 led hundreds of thousands of Russians to leave the country. Since then, the Kremlin has relied on volunteers, offering relatively high wages and other benefits, though military experts have warned that the flow of volunteers has slowed while losses remain heavy. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has repeatedly said the Kremlin is considering a post-election mobilisation, but Putin has dismissed that as "nonsense". At a Sept. 5 Kremlin meeting with US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner and in a later call with President Donald Trump, Putin said Russia had the upper hand on the battlefield, suggesting he would stick to his maximalist demands in any peace deal.

Even with public fatigue over the war and a worsening economy, United Russia, which holds more than two-thirds of the Duma's 450 seats, is expected to remain dominant. Some Russian reports say the Kremlin has slightly lowered its target for the party, but still expects it to keep full control. Analyst Mark Galeotti, who heads the Mayak Intelligence consultancy, said, "United Russia may be allowed to slip a little to bring its actual sort of declared results more in line with probably its real results," but added that the Kremlin would make sure it "is still absolutely dominant within the Duma." He said the elections were meant to serve as "legitimating rituals to give the impression that mass consensus is behind the Kremlin".

The other parties in the so-called systemic opposition — the Communist Party, the Liberal-Democratic Party and A Just Russia — are also expected to keep their place in parliament while continuing to support Putin's line and the war. Galeotti said the drone attacks could also produce calls for a tougher response to Kyiv, "as long as they don't have to be involved in it". Chris Weafer, chief executive of Macro-Advisory Ltd., said the attacks had affected public morale but posed no immediate threat to the Kremlin's hold on power. "There has been a rally around the flag anyway since the start of conflict and the opinion polls consistently show the very high level of support," he said. He added that while the result was predetermined, "the public narrative and particularly the turnout" mattered most to the Kremlin so it could present the vote as proof of broad backing for its actions.

The election, then, is set to confirm United Russia's dominance, but it is taking place amid economic strain, tighter political controls, and a war that is being felt more sharply inside Russia.

With PTI Inputs

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