Gulf voters grounded: How Iran war could upend Kerala's assembly poll arithmetic

With flights disrupted and costs spiralling, the decisive 'pravasi' electorate may be largely absent from Kerala's upcoming election. How is this likely to hurt parties?

In Short

• Kerala's Gulf expatriates voter turnout may drop from 60% to 10%
• Flight cancellations, quadrupled fares deter many from returning to vote
• Gulf votes are critical in closely-fought North Kerala constituencies

With polling just days away, Kerala is looking at a possible sharp drop in one of its most decisive voter blocs – the expatriates in the Gulf. Of the state’s 2.25 lakh registered pravasi voters, estimates suggest a majority may not return home this time, with some groups warning turnout could plunge from the usual 60 per cent to as low as 10 per cent.

The reasons are stark. Escalating tensions in West Asia have disrupted travel, over a thousand flights have reportedly been affected, and airfares have surged up to fourfold, from around Rs 8,000-Rs 13,000 to over Rs 60,000 on key Gulf-Kerala routes.

The impact could be felt most in North Kerala’s politically crucial belt, where margins are often wafer-thin and expatriate votes swing outcomes. In the 2021 Assembly polls, seats like Perinthalmanna (38 votes) and Kuttiadi (333 votes) in Malappuram were decided by razor-thin differences, while several others saw margins under 5,000. With constituencies such as Kuttiadi alone having over 16,000 registered overseas voters, even a partial drop in turnout could alter electoral arithmetic significantly.

GULF VOTES: THE DECIDING FACTOR IN MALABAR

Non-Resident Keralite (NRK) voters have long played a decisive role across nearly 50 Assembly constituencies stretching from Kannur to Palakkad. In the 2021 Assembly election, when the Pinarayi Vijayan-led Left Front made a historic comeback to power, several seats were decided by razor-thin margins.

For instance, Perinthalmanna was decided by just 38 votes and Kuttiadi by 333, while constituencies such as Tanur, Thrithala and Palakkad recorded victory margins of under 5,000. Any potential drop in returning expatriate voters has therefore raised concerns among political fronts, particularly in the tightly contested Malabar belt, where every vote can tilt the balance in a neck-and-neck contest.

Data from the 2024 Lok Sabha elections underlines the scale of this influence. Nearly 10,000 expatriates travelled back to vote, with the Muslim League-affiliated Kerala Muslim Cultural Centre (KMCC) even arranging two chartered flights for the Vadakara constituency alone. In Kozhikode district, as many as 35,793 pravasi voters cast their ballots, a significant share from Vadakara.

However, the 2026 Assembly polls present a starkly different picture.

Unlike previous elections, there have been no high-profile overseas campaigns, such as those led by Congress MP Shafi Parambil during the Lok Sabha polls. Ongoing instability in West Asia has disrupted air travel, curtailing both voter movement and physical campaigning. In response, expatriate networks have shifted to grassroots mobilisation in the Gulf and large-scale virtual outreach to sustain engagement with the “homeland vote”.

Kuttiadi in Kozhikode district exemplifies the outsized influence of Pravasi voters. With 16,002 registered overseas voters, which is the highest in the state, the constituency saw one of Kerala’s closest contests in 2021, decided by just 333 votes. With such narrow margins, even a modest drop in expatriate turnout could significantly alter outcomes this time. Other constituencies with a high concentration of overseas voters include Nadapuram (12,424), Tirur (8,601) and Kalliasseri (8,097).

HOPES STILL ALIVE FOR PARTIES

Despite these challenges, political fronts remain publicly optimistic, with some recalibrating their strategies to focus more extensively on local voters, while still cautiously hoping that a section of expatriates may return.

Youth League national organising secretary Shibu Meeran, speaking to India Today Digital, said the party expects comfortable victories even in traditionally close contests such as Perinthalmanna and Kuttiadi, citing intensified local-level mobilisation among expatriate families.

He also reiterated the Indian Union Muslim League’s long-standing demand for enabling overseas voting for NRIs and stressed that successive governments must ensure mechanisms for expatriates to participate in the democratic process from abroad.

SKYROCKETING AIRFARES

KTA Muneer, Middle East convener of the of the Overseas Indian Cultural Congress (OICC), also said flight cancellations linked to the regional conflict have severely hit travel plans ahead of the April 9 polling. “We estimate that nearly 30 per cent of active UDF workers and 60 per cent of supporters in the Gulf may not be able to return. Airfares have quadrupled, which is a major setback,” he told India Today Digital, adding that the presence of pravasifamilies already in Kerala during the school vacation period may partly offset the loss.

Muneer expressed confidence of a UDF victory, projecting over 100 seats, but flagged the absence of e-voting as a key concern. He added that proposals including the Kerala Pravasi Equity Fund (KPEF) and a five-year SGST refund for returnees have been submitted to the UDF manifesto committee headed by Benny Behnan MP.

AIRLINES' 'DAYLIGHT ROBBERY'

Voices from the diaspora reflect deepening frustration, with a sharp spike in airfares amid the West Asia conflict emerging as the biggest deterrent.

Noorudheen, a representative of the Royal Travel Agency in Dammam, Saudi Arabia, told India Today Digital that ticket prices have more than tripled.

“Earlier, fares typically ranged between Rs 8,695 and Rs 13,881 (350–550 riyals). Even during peak seasons, the upper limit was around Rs 21,500 to Rs 30,500 (850–1,200 riyals). Now, during the election period, prices have surged beyond Rs 61,907 (2,500 riyals),” he said.

Binu Korom, General Secretary of the Sharjah-based Malayali Arts and Social Centre (MASS), a Left-affiliated collective, said nearly 90 per cent of eligible NRI voters may miss the chance to vote this time, primarily due to travel disruptions and fears of job loss upon returning.

“Airlines are taking advantage of the Vishu and Easter holidays, along with the election season. India no longer has a dominant national carrier. With public sector airlines privatised, the government’s ability to intervene in what is effectively ‘daylight robbery’ has weakened. There must be a demand for fair pricing and concessions for travellers,” Korom said.

He emphasised that the LDF government has consistently prioritised the Pravasi community over the past decade, citing world-class development initiatives and welfare measures such as the Rs 7,000 pension and pravasi health insurance scheme.

Meanwhile, Ajitha Aneesh, chairperson of the Dubai Malayali Association, questioned whether expatriates are being treated merely as a vote bank. She warned that turnout could plunge from around 60 per cent to just 10 per cent, citing both logistical constraints and fears of losing employment.

“Even those with the financial means are worried about whether they can return to their jobs after voting. We expect turnout to drop from the usual 60 per cent to a mere 10 per cent,” she said.

Taken together, the twin challenges of disrupted travel and soaring costs threaten to sideline a crucial voter base. The absence of pravasi voters could reshape electoral outcomes, particularly in Malabar’s closely fought constituencies, while also renewing calls for long-pending reforms to enable overseas voting and protect diaspora participation in Kerala’s democratic process.

- Ends