U.S. Vice-Presidential Debate: Early Poll Analysis

U.S. held its CBS-hosted sole vice-presidential debate on Oct 1st. The policy centred debate saw Republican J.D. Vance and Democrat Tim Walz engage in a respectful war of words to defend their personal qualifications, as well as their presidential candidates and party policies. Important issues discussed include plans for economic recovery, climate change, gun regulation, and reproductive rights.

U.S. held its CBS-hosted sole vice-presidential debate on Oct 1st. The policy centred debate saw Republican J.D. Vance and Democrat Tim Walz engage in a respectful war of words to defend their personal qualifications, as well as their presidential candidates and party policies. Important issues discussed include plans for economic recovery, climate change, gun regulation, and reproductive rights.

What do the polls say?
While both candidates held their ground during the 90 minute debate, we wonder who Americans think did better. While both parties had expected to give a push to their campaigns through the debate, it seems that debate watchers are divided on who won.
According to an average of late-Tuesday polls from ,CNN/SSRS YouGov/CBS News, Focaldata/Politico and J.L. Partners/DailyMail.com, 48 percent of debate watchers thought that Vance was the winner or did the best, while 46 percent thought that it was Walz was performed better. It is only in the Daily Mail poll where Vance has a lead with 50% as compared to 43% for Walz.
Experts argue that the relative semblance in poll results is not surprising since both candidates did well, and had their respective weak and strong moments.
Opinions therefore, were made largely on party lines. For example, according to CNN/SSRS, 90 percent of Trump supporters who watched the debate thought Vance won, while 82 percent of Harris supporters thought that Walz did.

Both candidates benefitted from Debate
However, both Walz and Vance have benefitted from the debate and saw a hike in their reception with voters. The concept of net favourability rating is helpful. It is the share of respondents who view a candidate favourably minus the share who view them unfavourably.
On average between the CNN/SSRS and YouGov/CBS News polls, Vance's net favorability rating went from -18 percentage points before the debate to just -1 point after it. Walz's net favourability rating increased from +13 points to +31 points after the debate.
Historically too, VP debates have impacted candidates’ popularity (insert image history popularity). Both leaders can therefore expect to have a relatively higher popularity in a few weeks’ time.

Should we take poll results seriously?
A word of caution on the polls – they only take into account those who actually watched the debate – in this case, more democrats over republicans.
Therefore, real support may be tilted in favour of Vance.
Also, since the debate was very close, their increased popularity may not have a significant impact on voter choice – for themselves, as well as for their presidential candidates.