Why Iran is preparing for 3,000 deaths at Ali Khamenei's funeral

A German report claims Iranian authorities are making extensive preparations for possible mass casualties at Ali Khamenei's funeral in Tehran, reflecting concerns over past deadly stampedes at major state funerals in the country.

In Short

• Ali Khamenei’s funeral draws large crowds to Tehran
• Tehran authorities arrange special units, free 24-hour transport
• Past stampedes at state funerals in Iran heighten caution

That former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s funeral is turning out to be a grand affair is no surprise, given his stature and the circumstances surrounding his death. However, fresh details emerging from Iran are revealing the sheer scale of preparations, with a German publication reporting that authorities are planning for the possibility of several thousand deaths during the funeral due to the expected crowds.

According to Die Welt, a classified letter from the Iranian Red Crescent and the national crisis management organisation has projected between 1,500 and 3,000 deaths during the period when the body lies in state in Tehran. The report adds that municipal officials have drawn up contingency plans for mass casualties during the procession for the former Supreme Leader.

Khamenei, who was killed in an Israel-US airstrike on February 28, will be buried in Mashhad on July 9 after a week-long funeral procession that will see the body travel through Qom in Iran, and Najaf and Karbala in Iraq — all three major holy sites in Shia Islam. His body will remain at Tehran’s Grand Prayer Hall until July 6 to allow mourners to pay their last respects.

The report says Tehran municipal authorities have already created a special unit to handle the dead and missing, and have prepared thousands of new graves at the city’s Behesht-e Zahra cemetery.

“The prepared graves really exist. Those responsible were told that up to 3,000 deaths would be manageable. With such large crowds and extreme heat, no one knows what will happen,” the German publication quoted an anonymous municipal employee as saying.

TEHRAN REFURBISHED FOR FUNERAL

Iranian authorities claim that at least 20 million people are expected to attend the Tehran leg of the funeral procession. The figure, however, cannot be independently verified. The Shiite establishment has often used major funerals as displays of strength, both for external signalling and internal consolidation.

*Die Welt* reported that authorities are planning a sweeping security and logistical operation in Tehran, including movement restrictions, possible disruption to air travel, deployment of thousands of buses, temporary kitchens, and the use of schools and mosques to house participants.

Beyond preparing for mass casualties, officials are also attempting to prevent such a crisis from unfolding in the first place. The report notes that the municipality is providing 24-hour metro and bus services free of cost to reduce the risk of stampede-like situations.

The publication, citing municipal employees, said each of Tehran’s 22 districts has allocated additional funds for fire services, parks departments, transport authorities and construction units. One estimate puts the total budget for the three-day funeral procession in Tehran at around $17 million, according to government-linked journalists cited by *Die Welt*.

WHY TEHRAN IS CAUTIOUS THIS TIME

The scale of preparations may appear striking, especially as Iran grapples with a fragile economy following its three-month conflict with the US and Israel. However, authorities have reason to remain cautious given the risks posed by massive public gatherings.

Iran has witnessed deadly stampedes at high-profile state funerals in the past. In 2020, at least 56 people were killed and more than 200 injured in a stampede during the funeral procession of IRGC commander Qasem Soleimani in Kerman.

The unprecedented outpouring of grief reflected Soleimani’s stature among many Iranians, who regarded him as a national hero for leading the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ Quds Force. The United States, however, held him responsible for the deaths of American troops in Iraq and accused him of plotting further attacks before killing him in a drone strike near Baghdad airport.

A similar tragedy unfolded during the 1989 funeral of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the founder of the Islamic Republic, when at least eight people were killed and more than 11,000 injured as millions gathered to pay their last respects.

The ceremony descended into chaos as mourners surged toward Khomeini’s casket, beating their chests in mourning under the sweltering summer heat. As the crowd swelled, the 86-year-old cleric’s white-shrouded body slipped from the coffin and fell into the crowd, forcing officials to halt the proceedings before the funeral could eventually be completed.

This time, however, an additional layer of concern is emerging within the government itself. Some reports suggest that hardline elements within the regime could openly oppose the recently signed peace deal with the US, and could also threaten members of the negotiating team, including the Parliament Speaker and the Foreign Minister.

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