How will Donald Trump's re-election impact the H-1B visa landscape?

Donald Trump's re-election is set to bring major changes to the H-1B visa process, affecting skilled foreign workers and the tech industry. Should Indian professionals be worried?

In Short

• Donald Trump plans to tighten H-1B visa regulations
• The tech industry may face challenges in hiring foreign talent
• Skilled foreign workers should prepare for potential policy shifts

The US presidential elections 2025 came to a head on Wednesday and Donald Trump's recent re-election has reignited discussions about the future of the H-1B visa programme, a critical pathway for skilled foreign professionals seeking employment in the United States, especially Indians.

In 2022, Indians secured 77% of H-1B visas, with 320,000 applications approved. Given Trump's history and 'America first' campaign promises, major changes to this visa category are anticipated.

TRUMP'S HISTORY OF RESTRICTIVE POLICIES

During his first term, Trump consistently implemented several measures to tighten immigration, including opposing the H-1B visa programme, arguing that it took jobs away from American workers.

His administration implemented several measures aimed at tightening the programme, which included:

Increased scrutiny: There was a notable rise in visa denial rates and Requests for Evidence (RFEs) during Trump's presidency which added complexity and delays to the application process.

The denial rate for H-1B petitions for initial employment increased from 6% in FY 2015 to 24% in FY 2018 and 30% by FY 2020. The average denial rate for H-1B visas rose from approximately 3.2% under President Obama to around 18% under Trump.

Higher wage requirements: The Trump administration proposed raising the minimum wage requirements for H-1B visa holders to align with that of standard US workers, which could impose financial burdens on foreign workers and make it more challenging for companies to hire them.

In October 2020, the Interim Final Rule was issued which elevated wage requirements by 43% to 71%, intending to align foreign workers' salaries more closely with those of US workers. However, this rule faced legal challenges and was eventually blocked in federal court in December 2020.

Limits on visa numbers: There was speculation that Trump may reduce the annual cap on H-1B visas or prioritise applicants with advanced degrees or specialised skills, further restricting access for many skilled workers.

PLANS FOR FURTHER RESTRICTIONS

In his 2024 campaign, Trump proposed additional measures to limit legal immigration. These include reducing the number of H-1B visas issued and implementing stricter eligibility criteria.

Such policies aim to prioritise American workers but could impact industries reliant on foreign expertise, such as the tech sector, a significant beneficiary of the H-1B programme.

Companies like Amazon and Google have historically relied on H-1B visas to fill specialised roles. Stricter visa policies could hinder their ability to recruit top talent, potentially affecting innovation and competitiveness.

Reports suggest that the Trump administration may shorten the duration of H-1B visas, especially for workers placed at third-party client sites.

This change could increase uncertainty for both employers and employees, leading to higher costs and administrative burdens.

IMPACT ON INDIAN PROFESSIONALS

Given that a significant portion of H-1B visas are granted to Indian nationals, any tightening of these policies could have profound implications.

Stricter regulations could limit job opportunities for Indian professionals in sectors like IT, where many companies depend on H-1B visas to bring in skilled talent.

Trump's anti-immigration stance may also affect family reunification processes for those already in the US on H-1B visas.

WHAT SHOULD PROSPECTIVE APPLICANTS DO?

Trump's re-election signals a potential tightening of the H-1B visa process. Given the anticipated policy shifts, prospective H-1B applicants should stay informed about changes.

Consulting with immigration experts and exploring other visa options may be prudent steps in navigating the evolving landscape.

While the full extent of these changes remains to be seen, both employers and foreign workers should prepare for a more restrictive environment in the coming years and consider alternative strategies.