Rubio-Lavrov Manila meeting puts Ukraine peace talks back in focus

Marco Rubio and Sergey Lavrov will meet in Manila with Ukraine high on the agenda. The talks will test whether stalled US-led diplomacy can regain momentum amid wider regional tensions.

In Short

• US mediation efforts slowed after indirect negotiations stalled and Iran tensions surged
• Rubio is also meeting Wang Yi and S Jaishankar in Manila
• South China Sea disputes dominated discussions after a fresh shoal confrontation

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio is set to meet Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in the Philippines on Thursday, with the war in Ukraine expected to be a key focus as Washington looks at whether there is any scope to revive efforts to end the conflict. The talks are due on the sidelines of a meeting of Southeast Asian foreign ministers in Manila and are among the most closely watched side meetings at the ASEAN gathering.

The Ukraine issue comes at a time when US efforts to broker an end to the war have slowed after indirect talks stalled and the Iran war took centre stage. Renewed strikes by Washington and Tehran have intensified after an interim ceasefire deal collapsed. Rubio is also holding a series of meetings in Manila, including with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar, as tensions in the South China Sea and wider regional issues remain in focus.

Speaking to reporters in Manila on Wednesday, Rubio said he would raise Ukraine with Lavrov and assess whether talks could be restarted. He said the United States remained open to helping end the conflict in Ukraine "if that opportunity presents itself". Rubio acknowledged that those efforts had "kind of fallen off a little bit over the last few months" but said the meeting would explore whether there was an opportunity to renew discussions.

"We have to have a relationship with the Russian government, even though we have areas of disagreement," Rubio said, adding that the United States and Russia are the two largest nuclear-armed countries.

Llavrov, speaking to reporters at the ASEAN meeting, said he would ask Rubio about recent remarks by US President Donald Trump suggesting that a settlement was "getting close". "I will ask Marco Rubio about it tomorrow," Lavrov said.

Any renewed discussion on Ukraine comes as Kyiv has made significant progress this year, but a rift between defence leaders has threatened to derail its efforts. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has also undertaken a major government reshuffle, including changes to the top military brass.

Ukraine is not expected to be the only issue on the table in the Rubio-Lavrov meeting. Rubio said he would also look for other areas of possible cooperation between the US and Russia, reflecting the wider agenda that ministers have been discussing around the ASEAN event.

Rubio said he and Wang discussed a new altercation this week between Chinese and Filipino forces at a disputed shoal in the South China Sea, which Beijing claims almost in its entirety. Rubio called the incident "escalatory" and said, "Those need to be managed very carefully, because obviously, a conflict - be it economic or otherwise - between the US and China would have a dramatic global impact."

The Trump administration has repeatedly criticised China's assertive actions in the South China Sea to the disadvantage of smaller claimant countries such as the Philippines, Washington's oldest treaty ally in Asia. Taiwan and ASEAN members Vietnam, Malaysia and Brunei have also been involved in the often tense territorial stand-offs.

According to the Chinese Foreign Ministry, Wang protested over "recent negative words and actions by the US side". It was not clear what he was referring to, but Trump recently accused China of meddling in the 2020 election and the US administration shortened visas for Chinese journalists. Wang also said China and the US were "preparing the upcoming high-level exchanges", referring to President Xi Jinping's visit to the US in September, according to a statement carried by the official Xinhua News Agency.

ASEAN foreign ministers discussed the territorial disputes on Tuesday and welcomed progress in years-long negotiations between China and the regional bloc on a proposed non-aggression pact, according to a draft joint communiqu seen by The Associated Press. The proposed code of conduct, which both sides hope to conclude this year, is aimed at preventing a major conflict in the disputed waters, a key global trade route that could also draw in the United States. In Manila, Rubio's meetings have brought the Ukraine war, US-Russia contacts, US-China tensions and ASEAN's South China Sea negotiations into one round of high-level diplomacy.

With PTI Inputs

- Ends