Scottish, Welsh and Irish leaders sign landmark independence pact, seek EU future

Leaders from Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland signed a Cardiff pact on constitutional change. The agreement urged Westminster to respect self-determination while underscoring different routes to future votes.

In Short

• Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland leaders unite for right to independence from UK
• Joint memorandum signed by key nationalist leaders in Cardiff
• Scotland and Northern Ireland back referendums; Wales holds back on timeline

Leaders of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland have joined forces in a renewed push for independence, declaring that their nations have the right to decide their own constitutional futures without Westminster blocking the process.

Scottish First Minister John Swinney, Plaid Cymru leader Rhun ap Iorwerth and Sinn Fein vice-president Michelle O'Neill signed a joint memorandum of understanding in Cardiff on Monday, alongside Sinn Fein President Mary Lou McDonald. The national leaders said their parties were committed to independence from the United Kingdom, despite differences over how and when constitutional change should happen.

While Scotland's John Swinney and Northern Ireland's Michelle O'Neill backed calls for referendums, Wales' Rhun ap Iorwerth stopped short of setting a timeline for a vote.

'WESTMINSTER'S TIME IS COMING TO AN END'

The agreement described the meeting as a significant moment for the independence movement across the UK.

"For the first time ever, people across these islands have first ministers in Scotland, in Wales and in the North of Ireland who are all committed to independence from the United Kingdom," it said.

"For people watching across these islands -- for people watching around the world -- there could be no clearer sign that Westminster's time is coming to an end."

The leaders called on the British government to "prepare for, plan and facilitate constitutional change" in each jurisdiction. They also stressed that each nation should determine its future according to its own circumstances.

"Our nations have the right to self-determination. No Westminster government has the right to block democracy or undermine the principle that our people will decide their own future," they said.

"We recognise that our parties have different constitutional positions and that each nation will determine its own future in its own way and in its own time."

Swinney separately predicted that Scotland would choose independence if given another referendum, saying current polling trends pointed towards public support for leaving the UK.

"The people of Scotland, if given the choice of independence in a referendum, will take that choice, because all of the information that we see in front of us about the trends in opinion polling indicate that’s the preference of the people of Scotland," the SNP leader said.

The three parties also pledged to deepen cooperation on areas including the economy, energy and international relations, while rejecting what they called Whitehall's "broken economic model".

EU FUTURE AT HEART OF PUSH

The agreement also linked the independence drive to a shared European future, stating: "The future of our nations belongs in the European Union." O'Neill said US President Donald Trump’s recent comments backing Irish unity showed that the debate over Northern Ireland’s constitutional future remained active.

"I think that tells us where we're at with where the thinking is around what is the big prize here for our people, and the big prize here is unification. It is the end of partition and it is that new beginning in a new Ireland," she said.

The leaders said the landscape across the UK and Ireland was changing and argued that momentum was building behind their respective independence and reunification movements.

"We therefore commit to strengthening cooperation between our parties and identifying practical areas where working together can make a real difference," the agreement said.

Downing Street, meanwhile, said Andy Burnham remained committed to the United Kingdom and was focused on the cost-of-living crisis rather than “constitutional debates".

WALES HOLDS BACK ON REFERENDUM TIMELINE

The joint declaration did not mean all three nations were at the same stage in their push for constitutional change.

Asked by BBC Wales what the agreement meant for Wales and whether it amounted to a demand that Westminster allow a Welsh independence referendum, Plaid Cymru leader Rhun ap Iorwerth said the decision ultimately rested with the Welsh people.

Pressed on when such a vote could take place, ap Iorwerth declined to set a timetable.

The Welsh government currently does not have the power to hold an independence referendum. Ap Iorwerth said he wanted that power devolved to Wales. His position also reflects a more cautious approach than in Scotland, where independence has been a big political issue for more than a decade.

SCOTLAND'S REFERENDUM BATTLE

Scotland voted against independence in the 2014 referendum, with 55 per cent choosing to remain part of the UK and 45 per cent backing independence.

The question of a second vote has since remained a constitutional dispute. The UK Supreme Court ruled in 2022 that the Scottish Parliament could not unilaterally organise another independence referendum because constitutional matters concerning the Union are reserved to Westminster.

Swinney has continued to argue for another vote, saying Scots would choose independence if given the opportunity.

The debate intensified after Prime Minister Andy Burnham appeared to suggest during Prime Minister's Questions that another Scottish referendum could be considered if there was clear public support.

He compared Scotland with Northern Ireland, where the Good Friday Agreement provides for a border poll when there is evidence of a majority favouring a united Ireland.

Swinney welcomed the apparent shift, but Burnham later clarified that another Scottish independence referendum remained "off limits".

WELSH TAKES A DIFFERENT PATH

Wales has also seen growing support for the independence question, but its trajectory differs from Scotland's.

Ap Iorwerth became Wales' first non-Labour first minister after May's Senedd election. However, he had previously ruled out pursuing an independence referendum during his party's first term in government. Instead, his administration plans to establish a national commission to "lay the foundations" for future plans for Welsh independence.

In the meantime, Welsh ministers are seeking greater powers over areas including policing and youth justice. Burnham has said he is "open" to transferring some additional powers.

Ap Iorwerth, however, said the prime minister had "a lot to learn" about the difference between devolution to a nation and devolution to an English region or city.

NORTHERN IRELAND'S PUSH IS FOR UNITY

Northern Ireland's constitutional debate follows a different route. Sinn Fein is seeking Irish reunification rather than independence as a separate state. O'Neill has backed the possibility of a border poll, while DUP deputy first minister Emma Little-Pengelly criticised her decision to attend Monday’s talks.

The UK government remains firmly opposed to the break-up of the Union.

"The prime minister is committed to delivering change across all four nations of the United Kingdom and believes strongly in the union," the UK government said.

The three devolved leaders are due to meet Burnham next month, with issues including funding and the powers of the devolved administrations expected to feature in discussions.

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