Not BJP, but RJD has more to worry after Prashant Kishor's Bankipur victory

While the BJP lost its 30-year fortress in the heart of Patna, the RJD might have suffered the more significant political setback. With anti-BJP votes likely getting consolidated with Jan Suraaj Party founder Prashant Kishor, Bankipur could mark the beginning of a larger realignment in Bihar's opposition politics.

Jan Suraaj Party (JSP) founder Prashant Kishor's victory in the Bankipur bypoll on Monday will be remembered as the battle that ended the BJP's 35-year dominance in one of its safest constituencies in Bihar. Yet, beyond the celebration of PK's political breakthrough lies a bigger question. Was the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), rather than the BJP, the real loser in the Bankipur verdict?

PK defeated the BJP's Neeraj Kumar by 19,324 votes, but the bypoll also exposed another emerging trend — the shrinking political space occupied by the RJD. The party's candidate, Rekha Kumari, finished third and managed to get only 14,273 votes.

The Bankipur Assembly seat has around four lakh voters, and the bypoll voter turnout was only 34.24%.

The BJP might have been decimated from one of its safest seats, but it remains the state's ruling party. For the RJD, however, finishing a distant third in a contest where anti-BJP votes appeared to consolidate behind PK's Jan Suraaj Party has raised deeper concerns.

If Bankipur is an indication of Bihar's changing political mood, PK might not just have dented the BJP's fortress, he might have begun eating into the RJD's position as the state's principal opposition.

The Bankipur Assembly seat fell vacant after BJP national president Nitin Nabin resigned as MLA following his election to the Rajya Sabha. For over 30 years, the constituency has been synonymous with the Nabin family — 20 years under BJP national president Nitin Nabin and the previous 15 under his father, Navin Kishore Prasad Sinha.

What was expected to be a routine BJP victory turned into the biggest political contest in Bihar after the 49-year-old poll strategist-turned-politician Prashant Kishor entered the fray with the party he established in 2024.

"One of the factors for PK's Bankipur victory is the RJD's decline. Its traditional Muslim-Yadav support base appeared to fragment," Political Analyst and VoteVibe founder Amitabh Tiwari told India Today Digital after the results were announced on Monday.

The JSP couldn't even manage to secure a single seat in the previously held state Assembly election in 2025, and now its founder has won its first seat in the 243-member Assembly.

BANKIPUR SETBACK: WILL PRASHANT KISHOR'S JSP EAT RJD?

For nearly three decades, Bihar's politics revolved around two poles, Lalu Prasad Yadav's RJD and Nitish Kumar's Janata Dal (United). The BJP's rise altered that equation, and the opposition space largely remained with the RJD.

That equation might now be changing in Bihar with Prashant Kishor's maiden electoral success.

With the JD(U)'s influence waning after Nitish Kumar stepped down as chief minister in April and the BJP taking direct control of the government under Samrat Choudhary, the RJD appeared well-placed to emerge as the principal challenger to the ruling alliance. Instead, Bankipur has now made the possibility of Prashant Kishor seizing that space from the RJD.

Political analyst Amitabh Tiwari believes the result is significant not merely because the BJP lost, but because the JSP appears to be occupying political ground once considered RJD territory.

"The RJD had been reduced to just 22 Assembly seats in 2010 before reviving to around 80 seats in 2015, with Nitish Kumar's support in the Mahagathbandhan. But by the 2025 Bihar Assembly election, it had slipped back to around 25 seats, almost returning to its 2010 position. Now, finishing third in Bankipur adds to concerns about the party's political trajectory," Tiwari told India Today Digital.

He argues that if Jan Suraaj Party continues expanding at this pace, it could eventually emerge as Bihar's principal opposition to the BJP.

"The shift is unlikely to happen immediately, but Bankipur may prove to be the first indication that the JSP is beginning to take political space once held by the RJD. With the Congress also appearing to drift away from the RJD-led alliance, Bihar's opposition politics could witness a major realignment," he said.

DID MUSLIMS DITCH RJD AND LEAN TOWARDS PRASHANT KISHOR'S JSP?

The RJD's political identity has long rested on the Muslim-Yadav (M-Y) alliance crafted by its patriarch Lalu Prasad Yadav in the 1990s.

Post-poll studies have consistently shown overwhelming support from both communities for the RJD. Around 74% of Yadavs and nearly 70% of Muslims backed the RJD in the 2025 Assembly elections, according to the CSDS Lok Niti survey. In 2020, the figures stood at 83% for Yadavs and 62% for Muslims.

That is why Bankipur has generated so much discussion at the moment.

According to Tiwari, the biggest shift in the bypoll came from Muslim voters, many of whom appeared to back the JSP instead of the RJD.

"The Muslim voters are consolidating behind Prashant Kishor's Jan Suraaj because it is the party that's best placed to take on the BJP," Tiwari had told India Today Digital on July 30 after polling was done.

"Many Muslim voters, who have historically opposed the BJP, viewed Prashant Kishor as the strongest challenger capable of defeating the BJP and shifted towards the JSP instead of backing the RJD. That appears to have pushed the RJD into third place," he said on Monday.

The logic, analysts say, is rooted less in ideology than in electoral arithmetic. Muslim voters have traditionally rallied behind whichever opposition party appears best positioned to defeat the BJP. In Bankipur, many seem to have concluded that Prashant Kishor's Jan Suraaj Party and not the RJD, offered the stronger challenge to the BJP.

If that perception spreads beyond one constituency, the implications for Bihar's opposition politics could be profound.

Bankipur was never just about one Assembly seat or just a mere bypoll.

For the BJP, it was the loss of a fortress it had defended for 30 years. For Prashant Kishor, it was the validation of a political experiment that many had dismissed after Jan Suraaj Party's poor showing in the 2025 Assembly elections.

But the result may prove most consequential for the RJD. Its third-place finish has revived questions over whether Bihar's traditional opposition is steadily losing the social coalition that sustained it for three decades. One bypoll will not redraw the state's political map, but it may well mark the beginning of a contest over who occupies the opposition space in Bihar.

If Bankipur was Prashant Kishor's arrival, it may also be remembered as the election that exposed the RJD's struggle to remain the BJP's principal challenger.

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