Iran rescue operation saved Trump more than the F‑15E pilot

In a high-risk overnight operation, US forces rescued an F-15E pilot, who went missing after Iran reportedly shot down his aircraft on April 3. As per media reports, the rescue operation involved heavy firefighting with Iran's troops to block them from reaching the pilot before he could be rescued.

In Short

• US forces rescue F-15E pilot in high-risk operation
• Operation may have eased political pressure before midterm polls
• War with Iran remains unpopular, posing risks to Republican candidates

The daring rescue operation by US forces not only saved the F-15E Strike Eagle pilot but may have also helped President Donald Trump save face amid rising domestic opposition to his military action in Iran.

Until the successful rescue mission, Trump's Iran campaign, which has killed the Supreme Leader and several top leaders of the regime so far, meant little political impact in the US. However, a botched operation could have put Trump in a tough spot among his ardent supporters, who have so far rallied behind him. Consequently, it would have helped Iran control the war's narrative, if not its outcome.

The rescue mission may have also helped Trump tell the world that the US is more than capable of conducting military operations inside Iran, which last saw a land invasion in early 1980.

In a high-risk overnight operation on April 5, American forces rescued an F-15E pilot, who went missing after Iran reportedly shot down his aircraft on April 3. As per media reports, the rescue operation involved heavy firefighting with Iranian troops to block them from reaching the pilot before he could be rescued.

Trump made a triumphant announcement on Truth Social after the pilot was successfully rescued. "WE GOT HIM! My fellow Americans, over the past several hours, the United States Military pulled off one of the most daring Search and Rescue Operations in US History, for one of our incredible Crew Member Officers," he posted.

Further, in what seemed like a message to his domestic audience, Trump added that every American, irrespective of their political affiliation, should be proud about the US achieving "air dominance and superiority" over Iran.

However, Trump's follow-up post laid bare the perils involved in the rescue operation. "The Iranian military was looking hard, in big numbers, and getting close. This type of raid is seldom attempted because of the danger to men and equipment," he wrote.

HIGH-RISK OPERATION

In fact, the airman was behind enemy lines in the Zagros Mountains for two days and was being trailed by Iran, which had offered a reward of $60,000 to anyone who captured him alive.

During the operation, as per an Al Jazeera report, the pilot and the rescue team also faced the threat of getting killed in the crossfire. According to a Reuters report, two MC-130 aircraft ferrying the pilot as well as other US forces also suffered a mechanical failure after the rescue ended.

In an alternate scenario, Trump would have faced a hostage-like situation if Iran had captured the pilot as well as other US troops. This would have also provided Iran leverage over the US, just like it did during the 1979 hostage crisis in Tehran. The withdrawal of US troops from the Middle East, security guarantees against future attacks and other demands would have made Trump's position perilous.

Back then, supporters of Ayatollah Khomeni held over 50 staff members of the US Embassy hostage. They had demanded the extradition of Shah Reza Pahlavi, the condemnation of US intervention in 1953 and the unfreezing of Iranian assets worth millions of US Dollars. While the first two demands did not materialise, the US unblocked Iranian assets in exchange for the hostages.

A failed rescue mission would have led to comparisons with Operation Eagle Claw, the failed 1980 attempt to rescue US nationals in Iran. Then US President Jimmy Carter had also blamed the operation for his 1980 presidential poll loss.

AN UNPOPULAR WAR IN US

To make matters worse for Trump, his war on Iran is already unpopular with Americans, as per a recent Reuters-Ipsos poll. At least three out of four oppose sending ground troops to Iran, a country which has often been called "unconquerable".

Furthermore, most of them are negative about their personal finances as energy prices soar. Average gasoline prices in the US could be between $4.25 and $4.45 per gallon soon, according to market experts.

The month-long war has also dragged down Trump's approval ratings and intensified anxiety about the consequences for Republicans heading into November's midterm elections. Any untoward incident during the rescue mission could have put Trump's political career in the line of fire. That risk has been put to rest.

POLITICAL RISK TO TRUMP

However, the bigger question still remains: How long will this war continue? If the war in Iran stretches for a few more weeks, there is likely to be political repercussions for the Republicans, who had promised not to involve the US in any foreign wars.

So far, experts believe that the ongoing war is unlikely to have a major impact on the outcome of the midterm polls. However, they add that many things could happen between now and November, which could alter the political equation.

"In all, Operation Epic Fury poses a higher political risk to Republican candidates than to Democratic ones. It will likely put more Republican seats in both the House and Senate at risk," writes US foreign policy expert James M Lindsay in a Centre for Foreign Relations article.

It won't be wrong to conclude that the US military may have temporarily saved Trump from political embarrassment while performing its moral obligation of saving its personnel from Iran.

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