Why Mamata lost her safe seat Bhabanipur to BJP's Suvendu Adhikari
BJP leader Suvendu Adhikari defeated Mamata Banerjee in Bhabanipur, the safe seat that sent the Trinamool Congress chief to the Assembly as the chief minister. The loss adds insult to injury even as the BJP decimated the TMC in the West Bengal Assembly election. These are the factors behind Mamata's loss in Bhabanipur.
by Sushim Mukul · India TodayExactly five years ago, BJP leader Suvendu Adhikari made Mamata Banerjee taste a bitter defeat in West Bengal's Nandigram. Now in 2026, the same Adhikari has done it again. Not in Nandigram, but in Kolkata's Bhabanipur, the very seat that sent Mamata to the Assembly after her Nandigram defeat so that she could remain the chief minister.
Suvendu Adhikari has chased down Mamata in her safe bastion and beaten his former boss. What's behind the sitting chief minister's rout from the seat she once considered safe?
Mamata's loss in Bhabanipur adds insult to injury on a day her Trinamool Congress was routed by the BJP, which is set to win around 200 of the 293 seats that went to polls. Mamata Banerjee resides in Kalighat, which is part of the Bhabanipur Assembly segment. This is the place where she honed her political skills as a fiery Youth Congress leader.
Suvendu has gone on to win both the seats—Bhabanipur and Nandigram.
The contest between Suvendu and Mamata at "Mini-India" Bhabanipur witnessed swings throughout Monday. Adhikari first secured a lead in the morning when the postal ballots were counted. However, Mamata quickly narrowed the gap and moved ahead briefly around the seventh round of counting. At one point, she secured a lead of more than 19,000 votes, which made the battle look easy for her. However, by 6.30 pm, Mamata's lead had shrunk to just 2,900 votes. At 9 pm, Suvendu had gained a lead of over 11,000 votes with 18 of the 20 rounds of counting.
When the final results were declared, Suvendu Adhikari defeated Mamata Banerjee in Bhabanipur with a margin of 15,000 votes.
While the RG Kar Medical College rape-murder case dented Mamata Banerjee's image on women's safety, her personal defeat at Bhabanipur must have been shaped by a mix of factors.
The SIR process and voter scrutiny, along with Bhabanipur's demographic composition, and a fearless and transparent voting process must have all played a role. While these were factors, it all ultimately fed into a broader anti-incumbency wave against the TMC, and the BJP's consolidation efforts for votes.
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DEMOGRAPHY OF 'MINI-INDIA' BHABANIPUR, SIR DELETIONS, MADE MAMATA LOSE?
First a bit about the demographic composition of Mini-India, Bhabanipur, and why that could have complicated matters for Mamata in the contest. The constituency in southern Kolkata is a mosaic of Indians from all communities. Roughly 42% of the seat's electorate are Bengali Hindus, and about 34% are non-Bengali Hindus. Around a quarter of the voters are Muslim and there are also significant pockets of migrants from Bihar, Odisha and Jharkhand.
However, this time, it wasn't just sections of the non-Bengali Hindu trader community (Gujaratis and Marwaris) that backed the BJP. A significant shift among Bengali Hindu voters too appears to have tilted the balance in Suvendu Adhikari's favour.
At the same time, parts of the urban middle class have shown signs of fatigue with the Trinamool's governance record. The rise of apartment living and a non-Bengali voter base also weakened the traditional neighbourhood network that once called Mamata their "ghorer meye", according to The Telegraph of Kolkata.
Then came the Special Intensive Revision (SIR). The SIR of electoral rolls ahead of the West Bengal election emerged as one of the most contentious issues in Bhabanipur. News Reports suggest that 47,000–51,000 names were deleted from the rolls in the constituency, with a high share believed to be of Muslim voters, which is a core support base for the TMC.
The TMC alleged targeted disenfranchisement of minorities, migrants and the urban poor, while the Election Commission maintained that the SIR was aimed at removing duplicates and ineligible entries. The debate can continue but the impact has been felt on the ground, and even in Bhabanipur.
The past winning margins at Bhabanipur have also narrowed over the years. From a landslide TMC win in the 2021 bypoll to a smaller Trinamool lead in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. This meant, even a small shift in the electorate could have altered the outcomes significantly. And that's what happened on Monday. A small, but a techtonic shift.
HOW BJP TRAPPED MAMATA IN BHABANIPUR CHAKRAVYUH
Beyond numbers, the BJP also turned Bhabanipur into a prestige battle by fielding Suvendu Adhikari. For months, the BJP meticulously mapped Bhabanipur. The party identified Bengali Hindus and Hindi-speaking trader communities to keep the balance in its favour.
Unlike previous elections where the party had fielded relatively lighter candidates, this time it deployed its most potent challenger, the man who had already defeated Mamata once in Nandigram, one of the cradles of the TMC.
Adhikari's strategy hinged on three pillars. The fine-tuning of booth-level social arithmetic, the consolidation of non-Muslim votes, and the symbolic heft of his own candidature, were taken care of Adhikari.
By fielding Adhikari, the BJP crafted a strategy to corner Mamata in her Bhabanipur stronghold. The move turned Bhabanipur into a Chakravyuh for Banerjee and the TMC.
MAMATA WALKED OFF BHABANIPUR STAGE, REVEALED FRIGHT
Union Home Minister Amit Shah too accompanied Adhikari to file his nomination and said that a Bhabanipur victory would be the BJP's shortcut to the change it promised for Bengal.
At the same time, Mamata's campaign leaned on familiar strengths. Welfare schemes, personal outreach, and the emotional pitch of being Bhabanipur's "own daughter", were Mamata's best pitches to the voters in Bhabanipur.
It was during the campaigning in Bhabanipur that Mamata walked off the stage at an election rally, alleging that her speech was being disrupted by a BJP rally nearby.
"Jodi paren, vote ta amay deben... amake meeting ta porjonto korte dicche na (If you can, do cast your vote for me. They aren't allowing me to even hold this meeting," Mamata and walked off the stage. The "if you can" in her appeal and leaving the stage raised the curiosity of several people.
Was Mamata no longer confident about the seat or was she trying to project herself as a victim and gain sympathy? Monday's results reveal that Mamata, a veteran politician, knew what was coming.
MAMATA BANERJEE JUST HAD LAKSHMIR BHANDAR TO SHOW?
On the other hand, the TMC government's schemes like Lakshmir Bhandar, Kanyashree and Swasthya Sathi were foregrounded as proof of governance and inclusivity. But the election in Bangal suggested that welfare, while still relevant, was no longer sufficient to hold together the fraying regime of the Trimanool.
The RG Kar case, which triggered outrage over women's safety across India, also cast a shadow on Mamata's poll prospects. While it might not have been decisive on its own, it dented Mamata's cultivated image among women voters. Educated women voters were worried about jobs for their children. The dole handed out didn't count.
Combined with allegations of corruption, cut-money culture, syndicate system, the governance fatigue of 15 years, contributed to the broader anti-incumbency sentiment against the Trinamool Congress rule.
In the end, for Mamata Banerjee, the loss at Bhabanipur came with the end of Trinamool Congress's 15-year rule in West Bengal. For the BJP's Suvendu Adhikari, the Bhabanipur victory completes a personal arc.
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