US intel says Iran recovering military capabilities much faster than expected

Early assessments after the war suggested Tehran would take years to restore major capabilities damaged in the US-Israeli bombing campaign. But US intelligence officials say Iran could fully restore its drone attack capabilities within six months.

In Short

• Nearly half of Iran's drone capability survived, according to US assessments
• Thousands of Iranian drones are believed to have remained intact after fighting
• Russia and China suspected of helping Iran rebuild military capabilities

Iran has restarted parts of its drone production network just weeks after a ceasefire paused fighting with the United States and Israel. According to a CNN report citing multiple sources familiar with US intelligence assessments, Iran is rebuilding sections of its military industrial base much faster than American officials initially expected.

"The Iranians have exceeded all timelines the IC had for reconstitution," a US official told CNN. The assessment comes as US President Donald Trump continues to warn that military operations against Iran could restart if ongoing negotiations fail to produce a deal.

The speed of Iran's military recovery has caught many US intelligence officials off guard. Early assessments after the war suggested Tehran would take years to restore key capabilities damaged in the US-Israeli bombing campaign. But intelligence officials say the country could fully restore its drone attack capabilities within six months.

According to CNN, thousands of Iranian drones are still believed to be intact. US intelligence assessments indicate that nearly half of Iran's drone capability survived the conflict. Iran's coastal defence cruise missiles are operational. Those weapons are seen as especially important because they give Tehran the ability to target shipping routes in the Strait of Hormuz.

QUESTIONS OVER EFFECTIVENESS OF US-ISRAELI ATTACK

The new intelligence findings also raise new questions over how successful the US-Israeli military campaign really was. This week, CENTCOM commander Admiral Brad Cooper told the US Congress that the strikes had crippled Iran's defence industry. On multiple occasions, the US President has said the same.

"Operation Epic Fury significantly degraded Iran's ballistic missiles and drones while destroying 90 per cent of their defence industrial base, ensuring Iran cannot reconstitute for years," Cooper said.

But the latest intelligence assessments appear to challenge that claim.

Iran's rebuilding process may have been pushed back by only a few months rather than several years. Some military production sites were either missed during the strikes or were not fully destroyed, allowing Iran to restart operations faster than expected. US intelligence had earlier estimated that about half of Iran's missile launchers survived the bombing campaign. However, the latest assessments now suggest that figure may be closer to two-thirds.

IRAN RECOVERY BOOSTED BY ALLIES?

US intelligence officials also suspect outside support has helped Tehran recover at a faster pace.

Sources told CNN that backing from Russia and China, along with the limited long-term damage caused by the strikes, helped Iran restart parts of its military production network more quickly. China continued supplying Iran with components that could be used for missile production during the conflict. However, officials believe those supplies may now be slowing because of the US naval blockade around Iranian ports.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu recently accused China of helping Iran with "components of missile manufacturing".

China strongly rejected the allegation.

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun called the accusation "not based on facts."

Despite the intelligence concerns, the Pentagon has continued projecting confidence about America's military position in the region.

- Ends