Why Pakistan is suddenly sweating over Houthis attacking Saudi Arabia

Renewed Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia have heightened pressure on Pakistan's regional role. Islamabad is trying to preserve diplomacy with Iran while standing by its Saudi commitments.

In Short

• Islamabad balances Saudi defence ties and Iran mediation role
• Pakistani troops near Yemen border heighten conflict risks
• Diplomacy remains focus but military support for Saudi possible

After Yemen's Iran-backed Houthi rebels resumed attacks on Saudi Arabia, Pakistan is at increasingly uncomfortable position. On the surface, it may look like another flare-up in the Middle East. But for Islamabad, the stakes are much higher.

The Houthi missile attacks have raised fears that Pakistan could eventually be sucked into a conflict it has spent months trying to avoid.

That is because Pakistan is not just another country watching events unfold. It is one of Saudi Arabia's closest security partners. At the same time, it has also been trying to play the role of a mediator between the United States and Iran.

Now, those two roles are beginning to collide.

WHY ISLAMABAD IS FEELING THE PRESSURE

Over the past few months, Pakistan has worked quietly to position itself as a diplomatic bridge in the region. It helped broker an interim understanding between Washington and Tehran and has repeatedly urged both sides to resolve their differences through dialogue.

But Pakistan also has a defence agreement with Saudi Arabia, signed last year, that makes the kingdom one of its closest military partners. Thousands of Pakistani soldiers are stationed in Saudi Arabia. The country has also deployed fighter jets there.

That means if Saudi Arabia comes under sustained attack, Pakistan cannot simply stay on the sidelines.

One Pakistani official summed up the government's position in unusually blunt terms.

"Our top civil and military leaders have conveyed to Iran at the highest level that the attacks on Saudi Arabia are attacks on Pakistan," the official told Reuters.

"It is our red line."

Those comments show just how seriously Islamabad is taking the latest developments.

WHAT CHANGED THIS WEEK?

The immediate trigger was the Houthi missile attack on Saudi Arabia earlier this week. The group said it was responding after accusing Riyadh of bombing an airport under its control in Yemen.

Although the exchange has so far been limited, it broke a four-year truce between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis.

For Pakistan, that was enough to set alarm bells ringing.

Officials fear this may not remain a one-off incident. If the attacks continue or become larger, Saudi Arabia could respond more aggressively, opening another front in an already volatile region.

WHY THE HOUTHIS MATTER MORE THAN IRAN'S MISSILES

Interestingly, Pakistani officials appear more worried about the Houthis than they were about Iran's earlier missile strikes.

The reason is simple.

Many Pakistani troops are deployed near Saudi Arabia's southern border, close to Yemen. If fighting expands there, those troops could find themselves much closer to the conflict. Analysts say that makes the current situation far more complicated than previous exchanges between Iran and the United States.

"Pakistan wasn't anticipating that the tensions will rise so suddenly," Pakistani security analyst Muhammad Amir Rana told Reuters.

Retired Pakistani general Ghulam Mustafa believes Islamabad is still trying to calm the situation through diplomacy.

"For now, Pakistan's top leaders are still engaged in appeasing all stakeholders."

But he also warned that things could change quickly "if the Houthis expand the radius of their attacks in Saudi Arabia."

THERE IS ALSO AN ECONOMIC PROBLEM

The military angle is only part of the story.

Pakistan is also worried about what another regional conflict could do to global trade. If the Houthis begin targeting ships in the Red Sea, one of the world's busiest shipping routes could once again come under threat.

That matters because Pakistan depends heavily on imports of fuel and other essential goods from the Gulf.

The country has already felt the impact of disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz. Authorities recently introduced emergency measures, including early business closures, to manage fuel supplies.

A wider conflict affecting both the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea would create fresh pressure on Pakistan's economy.

ISLAMABAD IS ALSO WATCHING IRAN CLOSELY

Behind the scenes, Pakistani officials are becoming increasingly uneasy about what is happening inside Iran.

According to officials familiar with the situation, Islamabad believes there are growing differences between Iran's civilian leaders and the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

The concern is that military leaders may now be playing a bigger role in shaping Tehran's decisions. Officials say the uncertainty has made it more difficult to predict Iran's next move.

Despite the growing tensions, Pakistan has not given up on diplomacy. An Iranian delegation led by Interior Minister Eskandar Momeni arrived in Islamabad this week after delaying its visit by two days because of the latest developments.

Talks are expected to cover regional security as well as the future of US-Iran engagement.

Pakistan's Foreign Ministry has also continued to call for restraint. Speaking to reporters, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Tahir Andrabi urged all sides to avoid further escalation.

He said Pakistan calls "on all parties to exercise maximum restraint" and stressed that "there is no alternative to sustained engagement, dialogue, and diplomacy."

WALKING A DIPLOMATIC TIGHTROPE

For now, Pakistan is trying to balance two relationships that are equally important to its foreign policy. It wants to continue talking to Iran. It also wants to honour its commitments to Saudi Arabia.

Officials insist they still believe diplomacy is the best way forward.

"Yes, there is frustration, but that doesn't mean that we are abandoning this project," one Pakistani official said, referring to mediation efforts.

"We have invested a lot in it, and we have an interest in keeping it afloat."

Even so, another official acknowledged that Pakistan's options may become limited if the conflict spreads further.

"It's in everyone's best interest for the war to end. But if Saudi calls us in, we will stand by them and there is no doubt about that," the official said.

That statement perhaps explains Pakistan's dilemma better than anything else. Islamabad still hopes diplomacy will prevail. But if the conflict widens and Saudi Arabia seeks military support, Pakistan may have little choice but to stand with Saudi Arabia.

- Ends
With inputs from Reuters