Ahead of the verdict: How vulnerable are sitting MLAs in poll-bound states?

Data from West Bengal, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, and Assam show that sitting MLAs often have a significant advantage. Will the trend hold in 2026?

In Short

• Exit polls indicate churn across Kerala, Tamil Nadu and West Bengal
• West Bengal incumbents posted a 61 per cent average over three elections
• Kerala recorded the highest retention rate, averaging 79 per cent

Exit polls indicate significant churn in states such as Kerala, Tamil Nadu, and West Bengal. While many pollsters have given the Bharatiya Janata Party an edge in West Bengal, they are also predicting a flip in Kerala. In Assam and Tamil Nadu, however, incumbents are projected to retain their turf.

Given this churn, how will the prospects of sitting MLAs be affected? A look at constituency-level data from West Bengal, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, and Assam shows that sitting MLAs often enjoy a significant advantage, even when their governments face major challenges. However, the extent of this advantage varies from state to state. This analysis is based on the results of the last three Assembly elections.

In West Bengal, the numbers suggest that anti-incumbency exists but is not decisive. In 2011, 42 per cent of incumbents retained their seats. In 2016, that strike rate rose to 72 per cent, before dipping slightly to 63 per cent in 2021. On average, incumbents won 61 per cent of seats across these three elections.

Kerala presents a different picture. Incumbent MLAs have maintained very high winning percentages: 78 per cent in 2011, 76 per cent in 2016, and a striking 84 per cent in 2021. The average winning rate of 79 per cent is the highest among the four states. That is notably high for a state known to alternate power every five years.

Tamil Nadu’s numbers reflect a more competitive landscape. In 2011, incumbents retained just 38 per cent of seats, indicating strong anti-incumbency. This improved to 50 per cent in 2016 and further to 61 per cent in 2021. Overall, however, the numbers remain evenly balanced.

Across the last three Assembly elections, incumbents in Tamil Nadu have won 179 seats and lost 180, resulting in a near-perfect 50 per cent success rate. This makes the state an outlier, where incumbency offers neither a clear advantage nor a disadvantage, and electoral outcomes depend heavily on broader political currents.

In Assam, the trend reflects a sharp shift in voter behaviour over time. In 2011, incumbents won about half the time. This dropped to 42 per cent in 2016, before rebounding sharply to 74 per cent in 2021. Overall, incumbents have recorded a 54 per cent success rate across the last three elections, which indicates a moderate advantage.

Will the trend hold this time? The May 4 verdict will offer a clear picture.

- Ends