Netanyahu falls short of majority. What's next and what it means for India

Israeli voters did not give PM Benjamin Netanyahu a majority. They did not reject him either. The uncertainty has thrown up several questions. What lies ahead for Netanyahu? More importantly, what does it mean for India? We simplify the situation for you.

The keenly watched Israeli elections didn't throw up a clear winner. The voters did not give Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu a majority. Yet, they did not reject him either. The uncertainty has now thrown the door open to weeks of political negotiations as Netanyahu's future hangs in the balance. What lies ahead for Netanyahu, who has steered Israel amid the October 7 Hamas attack and the subsequent wars in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran? More importantly, what does it mean for India? This is what our report will decode today.

Before we go any further, here is a look at the numbers. Netanyahu's Likud-led right-wing bloc won the most number of seats (53) in the 120-member Knesset. It is eight short of the 61 needed to form the next government. The opposition bloc, led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, has secured 48 seats. Arab-led parties won a record 19 seats.

ARAB PARTIES EMERGE KINGMAKER

Essentially, neither of the blocs could form a government without the support of the Arab parties, potentially making them kingmakers. This is where things get interesting.

Both Netanyahu and Eisenkot have previously ruled out any tie-ups with the two Arab-led formations - The Joint List and the Ra'am. However, Eisenkot has softened his stance recently, suggesting he was open to joining forces with the Arab parties with conditions.

As of now, there are three possible options: an Eisenkot-led government backed by Arab parties, a national unity government involving Netanyahu and Eisenkot, and a coalition involving Netanyahu and defectors from Eisenkot's bloc.

If the first option materialises, it will be disastrous for Netanyahu. Not only does he face long-running corruption charges, but a Netanyahu-mukt government will also almost certainly launch a formal probe into alleged security lapses surrounding the devastating Hamas-led attack on October 7, 2023.

But that's a big if. Netanyahu is known to be a master of political manipulation, and no one can fathom what rabbit he may pull out of his hat this time.

For now, all eyes will be on Israeli President Isaac Herzog. He will first call the leader of the largest party to try to form the new government - in this case, Netanyahu.

As per protocol, Netanyahu will have up to 42 days to try to form the government. If he fails, the baton will be passed on to the leader of the second-largest party, who will be given 28 days. If unsuccessful, a period of 14 days is granted to a third candidate. If no government has been formed, fresh elections will be called.

WHAT ARE THE POSSIBLE SCENARIOS?

SCENARIO 1

The most straightforward solution will be Gadi Eisenkot joining forces with the Arab-led parties. It will take their numbers to 67 in the Knesset - a comfortable majority. However, such a coalition remains unlikely because Eisenkot and his allies have repeatedly rejected such a move before the elections.

Both have differing positions on Hamas and the war in Gaza. Some Arab parties have refused to endorse the military goal of eliminating Hamas, or condemn it as a terrorist organisation.

A former IDF chief, Eisenkot, has taken a hard line on Iran and Hamas. He also opposes Palestinian statehood. His differences with Netanyahu are essentially on domestic issues like exemptions from military service for ultra-Orthodox Jews.

Netanyahu has said any such alliance would be a betrayal of Israel's Jewish identity and a national security threat, raising the pressure on Eisenkot.

The Arab-led parties represent the Palestinian citizens of Israel. They make up 20% of the population and have close ties to Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza. Only once has an Arab party joined a governing coalition (in 2021). That government only lasted around 18 months.

SCENARIO 2

The second possibility is a unity government where Netanyahu and Eisenkot join hands with a bit of give-and-take. It may require Netanyahu to let go of some of his far-right allies who stood by him amid the conflicts with Iran and Hezbollah.

However, Eisenkot has repeatedly pledged not to serve in a government led by Netanyahu. He has held him responsible for the security failures over the Hamas attack and accused him of undermining Israel's democratic institutions. Crucially, the two leaders will also have to figure out who will serve as prime minister.

SCENARIO 3

If nothing works out, poach defectors. That's what a third scenario may look like.

Netanyahu may try to lure some of his former allies, like right-wing party leaders Naftali Bennett or Avigdor Lieberman, from the Eisenkot bloc.

It may not work out for Eisenkot, though. Netanyahu's far-right and ultra-Orthodox allies have been fiercely loyal to him over the years.

FRESH POLLS

If nothing works out, Israel is likely to have fresh elections next year. It won't be a bad option for Netanyahu as he will remain the caretaker PM until then.

As caretaker PM, Netanyahu will take security-related calls. There is a strong buzz of the US and Israel resuming military combat operations against Iran on a much larger scale after the American midterm elections next week. A fresh flare-up with Iran might work to Netanyahu's advantage.

HOW ISRAEL ELECTION RESULTS MAY AFFECT INDIA?

Over the past few years, India-Israel ties have become more ironclad. The bonhomie and personal rapport between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Netanyahu are well known. Who can forget the visuals of Modi and Netanyahu strolling barefoot at the Olga beach during the Prime Minister's visit to Israel in 2017?

The camaraderie between the leaders has ensured that the India-Israel relationship isn't just about buying weapons anymore. Both countries have deepened cooperation in technology, cybersecurity, AI, space, agriculture and trade.

The ties were elevated to a 'special strategic partnership' during PM Modi's February 2026 visit to Israel.

However, defence remains the biggest pillar of India-Israel ties. India, in fact, accounts for 40% of Israel's total arms exports. India relies heavily on Israeli missiles, air defence systems, surveillance equipment, drones and small arms and weapons.

Going forward, the focus is likely to shift towards joint production and technology sharing in line with India's Atmanirbhar push. If Netanyahu fails to become the PM, the approach of the new leader towards India remains to be seen.

However, a change in leadership in Israel is unlikely to disrupt ties with India. The countries are strong strategic allies. The relationship continued to remain strong under Netanyahu's predecessors, Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid.

Thus, the strong strategic and defence partnership is expected to continue, whichever leader comes to power.

- Ends