Iran is prepared for a war lasting six months, but constraints will come from its population, China

• Iran is mass-producing missiles and drones in hidden facilities, preparing for a potentially prolonged conflict with the US and Israel.
• Iran anticipates a war at least six months, having stockpiled resources and decentralised infrastructure to withstand potential disruptions.
• One major constraint on Iran’s endurance is China, and another limit is the patience of the population.

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ISTANBUL – Within secret caverns carved out inside formidable mountains and out of sight of spy planes and satellites, Iran is likely turning out new missiles and drones ahead of what it anticipates to be the next round of fighting against the US and Israel.

Iran is prepared to fight a much longer war – as long as six months or even longer – if peace talks this weekend break down and clashes with the US and Israel resume, Iranian insiders and analysts said.

“Iran has built a very large industrial base specifically to keep manufacturing the military equipment it would need to keep fighting,” said Mr Ali Ahmadi, a Tehran-based geopolitical analyst and strategist who previously served as an adviser to Iran’s Foreign Ministry.

“From the Iranian standpoint, the fear isn’t the war dragging on. The fear is the war ending and then starting back up again in six months when the US has managed to get its wits about it and thinks up a new military strategy,” Mr Ahmadi, of the Geneva Centre for Security Policy, told The Straits Times.

An international official based in Tehran said he was told by sources within the Islamic republic that it is ready for a conflict lasting until at least September.

“There are no shortages of anything,” said the official, who declined to be named as he is not authorised to speak to the media. “Iran is prepared for a long war. It anticipated this scenario and has enough food to feed the population for a maximum of six months.”

That time frame contrasts starkly with the days-long regime-change operation that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu pitched to US President Donald Trump, according to The New York Times. It would also outlast Israeli and Gulf Arab state stockpiles of interceptors, according to a report in March by Britain’s Royal United Services Institute.

Perhaps more crucially, Iran’s potential ability to survive a longer war could inflict grave damage to a global economy from which it has been excluded over the decades because of US sanctions. The world economy has been severely impacted by supply-chain disruptions and oil shortages caused by Tehran’s near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Opening up the choke point is among the key demands by the US in peace talks set to begin on April 11.

For the US, renewed fighting could also extend a widely unpopular war into the summer and sensitive moments of the US political calendar. Mr Trump plans to show off the US during the upcoming World Cup and the 250th anniversary on July 4, ahead of the November midterm elections, in which his Republican Party faces a high risk of suffering steep losses.

War preparation for over 20 years

Part of the mismatch in timelines stems from the US and Israeli rush into a war that appeared improperly planned and was thought to last days or weeks rather than months. 

While Mr Netanyahu has been speaking about a war with Iran for decades, he began enlisting Mr Trump only in 2025. Iranians say the regime, on the other hand, has been anticipating a war with the US since it watched Americans and their allies invade neighbouring Iraq in 2003, and topple Saddam Hussein’s regime.

“Iran has been preparing for this for decades,” said Mr Nayeb, an Iranian lawyer who lives between Tehran and the countryside and is close to the government. He declined full identification for fear of retribution.

“Power plants, refineries and other socially necessary infrastructure are not centralised. They’re scattered all over the country.”

He added: “Ancient civilisations are very patient, and even if they suffer, if they know they have a valuable objective, they will continue their path despite suffering.”

The fragile two-week ceasefire gives the US and Israel a chance to restock depleted interceptor stockpiles and inspect stressed aircraft frames. Iran is likely also already scrambling to dig out and repair damaged missile launchers for a potential next round.

Its war strategy is built around fortified missile cities, often built into mountains, where its arsenals of rockets and weaponry, as well as assembly plants, are stored and stockpiled.

Iran’s weapons arsenal

Iran has touted these missile sites in public communications for years. Beginning in the mid-2000s, it imported tunnelling hardware to burrow metro tunnels, as well as hideaways for aspects of its nuclear and missile programmes.

The Geneva Centre for Security Policy’s Mr Ahmadi said some of the unseen missile cities also have factories, giving Iran the ability to regenerate spent or destroyed weapons without being detected by satellites.

“It’s been something that has been part of the Iranian development process going back years,” he said. “Many of the missile production facilities were built above ground. It was after the 12-day war that Iranian generals said, ‘We need to move all this production, the entire supply chain, underground’.”

The 12-day war between Iran and Israel in June 2025 marked the sharpest escalation in confrontation between the two states before the US and Israel struck Iran on Feb 28. That war exposed weaknesses in Iran’s air defences and its inability to defend a broad, simultaneous attack on multiple front lines.

Mr Ahmadi speculated that Iran might have as many as 2,000 medium-range missiles that can reach Israel and a larger stockpile of short-range missiles that can hit the US bases and infrastructure in the Arabian Peninsula, and even more supplies of Shahed drones, which can also reach Israel while carrying smaller payloads.

“The drone stockpile is practically infinite,” Mr Ahmadi said.

Another variable is how many missiles Iran continues to produce now. Its capacity before the 12-day war was estimated at 50 of its most advanced ballistic missiles a month, with production increasing to about 100 a month since then.

“The capacity to produce is affected and not obliterated,” said the international official. “And till now, the US and Israel couldn’t manage to strike the biggest mountain missile cities of Isfahan or Yazd.”

Large parts of Iran’s supply chain have been disrupted in the current war, in which at least one munitions plant near the central city of Isfahan was blown up in an Israeli or US air strike, and the country’s main steel factory was badly damaged.

Still, Mr Ahmadi said, there were plenty of stockpiles of raw materials, including steel and aluminium, scattered around the country, with military needs taking priority over civilian demand.

This notwithstanding, the rush to build missiles may be impacting quality.

Ms Patricia Marins, a geopolitical analyst based in Brazil, said that for the first time in the war, two Iranian ballistic missiles heading to Israel failed on re-entry from space.

“Iran is assembling missiles while refurbishing,” she told ST. “But they have plenty against Gulf countries, and they are strategically using them in a way to avoid an escalation.”

The independent military analyst noted that the US and Israel are also running low in ammunition, perhaps more critically than Iran. “Iran can hold this pace for some weeks,” she said.

Iran’s war decisions constrained by Iranians, China

One major constraint on Iran’s endurance is China, Tehran’s important partner in diplomacy and security, as well as a customer for its oil. On April 7, Beijing protected Iran from the United Nations Security Council Resolution calling for military action to open the Strait of Hormuz.

But China also prodded Iran to embrace a Pakistani-brokered truce offering on the same day. Analysts said China was worried about the economic impact of the conflict.

Another limit is the patience of the population. Despite the casualties and the shock of war, “the domestic situation has been managed very well”, said Mr Mehdi, a 41-year-old Tehran resident reached through a messaging app and a VPN to circumvent internet restrictions. He declined to give his full name for fear of retribution.

Cafes and shops remain open, and even creature comforts like food delivery apps continue to operate.

“In terms of food supplies, the situation is actually very good, managed quite well by the government,” he said.

“But renewed attacks on bridges, causeways, ports and so on could cause logistical issues. People in Tehran are all used to living with electricity and water – a good modern lifestyle. I’ll say 95 per cent of people in Tehran don’t have individual electricity generators like people in Beirut or Baghdad. We are not ready for that.”

The international official noted that the war has served to unify the public, stir nationalist sentiment, and stifle deep and widespread hostility to the country’s leadership, which was responsible for a violent crackdown on protesters in January that left perhaps 7,000 people dead, according to human rights monitors.

However, Mr Ahmadi said sentiment could shift again against the regime if it is perceived as unwilling to negotiate a peaceful resolution.

“They will stick with the government if they feel a war is being imposed,” he said. “But that arrangement will be undermined if they feel the government is dragging the war on for no reason.”

• Borzou Daragahi, who is based in Istanbul and Paris, is a long-time foreign correspondent and founder of badlands, a global affairs newsletter.