ICE arrests keep soaring. Here’s why they are not leading to more deportations

Sept 14 - Immigration arrests in the U.S. have soared in recent months, aided by more local law enforcement cooperation with ICE, increased use of technology to track and process people, as well as enhanced data sharing between federal agencies.

But the mass arrest campaign this summer did not lead to a commensurate increase in deportations -- according to preliminary U.S. government data reviewed by Reuters -- a reflection of the legal and logistical limits faced by President Donald Trump as he attempts to hit his mass deportation goals.

Even as arrests jumped to nearly 51,000 in August, setting a record for a third straight month, deportation numbers held mostly steady, averaging around 1,200 per day, the preliminary government data showed.

About the same number of people were deported per day in May, for example, when there were around 19,000 fewer arrests, according to arrests data obtained by the Deportation Data Project through a public records request and analyzed by Reuters.

The disconnect is partly due to who is being targeted, five current and former officials said. The arrests include a growing number of people with no criminal conviction or charge and without deportation orders, according to the Deportation Data Project figures.

Many of those picked up had pending asylum or other legal claims – meaning they could not be immediately removed from the country unless they agreed to waive their rights and voluntarily depart.

A lack of available flights and limits set by receiving countries have also capped Trump’s deportation ambitions, former officials said.

"This is a false narrative," White House spokeswoman Lauren Bis said in response to questions from Reuters. "Thanks to President Trump’s strong immigration enforcement policies, three million illegals have left the United States.”

A WIDENING DRAGNET

The nationwide crackdown in recent months was not as high profile as past operations in Los Angeles, Chicago and Minneapolis, but it was more widespread.

"ICE Officers are herewith ordered ... to do all in their power to achieve the very important goal of delivering the single largest Mass Deportation Program in History," Trump declared on Truth Social in June.

Current and former officials said immigration officers are under growing pressure from the White House to hit a goal of 3,000 arrests per day.

"There are no quotas for arrests," DHS said in a statement to Reuters.

Throughout the summer, ICE agents partnered with local police to conduct traffic stops and picked up people at homes and job sites. Others were detained at immigration courts or routine immigration appointments.

The administration continues to assert it is focused on the “worst of the worst,” but people with criminal convictions accounted for less than a quarter of arrests in July, the Deportation Data Project figures show. That figure was nearly 60% in December 2024, the month before Trump took office for a second time.

Among the easiest people to find are those who have shared their personal information with the U.S. government, hoping to achieve legal status. These include immigrants being sponsored for green cards by U.S. citizen family members, those with asylum claims – and the more than a million people who have had their temporary legal status revoked during Trump’s second term.

But those people often have active cases to stay in the United States, which can make it more difficult to quickly deport them.

Many also “have long roots in the United States and may be more likely to be able to quickly find a lawyer through their U.S. family members and may be more aware of their rights,” said Julia Gelatt, an associate director at the Migration Policy Institute think tank.

At airports, following tips shared by the Transportation Security Administration, ICE has targeted people who had previously overstayed visas, even if they subsequently applied for asylum or married a U.S. citizen and had a path to legal status. More than 1,200 people were arrested by ICE following tips from TSA through early June, according to internal government data shared with Reuters.

Dolores Mendoza, 62, and Roberto Avalos, 64, were detained last week at an airport in Birmingham, Alabama, after returning from a trip to California to visit family. The couple entered the country on tourist visas in 2015, and stayed and adopted their three U.S. citizen grandchildren after their daughter died of breast cancer.

Neither has a criminal record. Both obtained work authorization and have pending petitions for permanent U.S. residence through their eldest grandchild, Marvin, who is now 22 and able to sponsor them.

Marvin said his younger brothers, ages 15 and 16, are struggling with their grandparents gone.

The youngest “hasn’t come out of his room often,” Marvin said. His other brother is “more angry than anything.”The couple's lawyer has filed a case in federal court contesting the detention as unlawful.

NOT ENOUGH PLANES

Some who can't afford a lawyer have languished in detention.

Yajaira Moran, 50, has been held for the past five months despite having a pending claim for a crime victim visa as a survivor of domestic violence.

In early September, she gave up and asked to go back to her home country of Nicaragua. She remains in detention as she waits to be deported.

Even when people are eligible for deportation, the logistics are complex, requiring coordination with receiving countries and transfers around a vast network of detention centers.

“Getting people on planes is really hard, and the actual number of available planes has historically been a choke point,” said Blas Nuñez-Neto, a former Biden administration official.

While the Trump administration signed a deal last year to purchase six Boeing 737 planes for deportations, those planes are still undergoing FAA checks and are not yet in use, according to a person briefed on the matter.

Planes in the existing fleet often depart without being at capacity, due to logistical, legal and diplomatic issues, former officials said, or because the receiving country has limited the number of people it can accept.

Recent deportation flights to the Haitian coastal city of Cap Haitien have carried as few as 57 people, according to the Human Rights First advocacy group. REUTERS