Can Cuba’s regime survive as US chokes oil supplies?

WASHINGTON – Ever since US Special Forces captured then Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro on Jan 3 and launched an attack on Iran, Washington has been warning that Cuba will be next.

Under a US-imposed economic blockade, the island has not received fuel in more than three months, according to Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel.

Asked about the communist-run island about 145km south of Florida, US President Donald Trump told reporters on March 16 that he believed he would have “the honour of taking Cuba”. He said his policies had weakened the country to the point that he could “free it, take it – I can do anything I want”. 

While Mr Trump says Cuba will be falling “pretty soon”, the island’s leaders remain defiant.

“Faced with the worst possible scenario, Cuba is accompanied by one certainty: Any external aggression will be met with unbreakable resistance,” Mr Diaz-Canel wrote on X.

How did this crisis begin?

When Maduro’s predecessor, President Hugo Chavez, took power in Venezuela in 1999, he quickly embraced Cuban leader Fidel Castro as his political godfather. Oil-rich Venezuela became Cuba’s principal benefactor. At one point, Venezuela was sending more than 100,000 barrels per day of highly subsidised fuel to keep the country afloat. 

That patron-client relationship continued after Mr Chavez died in 2013. Maduro sustained oil shipments and political backing for Havana even as Venezuela’s own economy collapsed.

When Maduro was captured earlier in 2026, the fuel shipments and political support suddenly ended. No country has stepped in to fill the gap, as Mr Trump threatened any that might provide oil to Cuba with punitive tariffs. Cuba’s economy was weak well before Mr Trump started exerting pressure, but it is now in free fall.

How close is Cuba to complete collapse?

Signs of hardship are everywhere in Cuba. The fuel crunch is exacerbating problems with an already decrepit grid. The country suffered two major blackouts – one of them islandwide – in March alone. Petrol is being rationed, tourist resorts are being shuttered and the government has told airlines they will not be able to refuel.

The United Nations said that the US fuel blockade is keeping the government from delivering food to its most vulnerable citizens and is pushing it to the edge of a humanitarian crisis.

China, Brazil, Mexico and others are providing – or have pledged to provide – food and humanitarian aid. But without major fuel shipments, it is unclear how long Cuba’s government can remain afloat. 

A tanker carrying more than 700,000 barrels of Russian crude is expected to arrive at the island by the end of March. (Cuba needs approximately 100,000 oil barrels a day to function.) If the vessel is able to deliver the crude, it would have to be refined, a process that can take 20 to 30 days, said Mr Jorge Pinon, a researcher at the University of Texas at Austin Energy Institute. 

What would the Trump administration gain from the collapse of Cuba’s government? 

Successive US administrations have tried to topple the 67-year-old communist regime in Havana – or force it to change. But perhaps no president has turned the screws quite like Mr Trump.

Driven in part by Secretary of State Marco Rubio – born in Florida to Cuban parents – the administration has ratcheted up sanctions and pressured Cuba’s neighbours such as Guatemala, Honduras and Jamaica to scale back reliance on Cuban medical missions, another source of income for Havana. Under pressure from Washington, Ecuador and Costa Rica have cut diplomatic ties with Cuba.

Why? Cuban Americans are a powerful voting bloc in South Florida, and that community has long advocated for the downfall of the regime. If Mr Rubio were the one to pull it off, it would help make him a Republican front runner in future elections.

And in Washington, Cuba is seen as a platform for China, Russia, Iran, and other US foes on Florida’s doorstep. Some US leaders see regime change as a way to blunt this influence.

What are the risks for the US? 

A series of crises in recent decades has driven waves of Cuban migrants to US shores. In 1980, more than 125,000 Cubans arrived in Florida over the course of just a few months in what was known as the Mariel boatlift. The current exodus from the island, which began during the Covid-19 emergency and soon surpassed Mariel, shows no signs of abating. If the government in Cuba collapses entirely, it could spark a still greater migration wave and a humanitarian crisis on Florida’s doorstep.

A failed Cuba could also destabilise other parts of the Caribbean and Latin America. And there is no telling how China and Russia might react to the fall of one of their longest-standing ideological allies in the Western Hemisphere.

What do we know about negotiations?

After months of rumours and leaks from the US, the Cuban government admitted on March 13 that negotiations are taking place.

US officials have been speaking mainly with Raul Guillermo Rodriguez Castro, the grandson of Raul Castro – a 94-year-old former Cuban president and brother of Fidel Castro. Mr Rodríguez Castro is thought to have close ties with GAESA, the sprawling business conglomerate run by Cuba’s military.

Cuba has also taken steps to appease Washington, releasing some political prisoners and offering to open up its economy. On March 16, the government said it would allow Cubans living abroad to invest in and start local companies, a long-running demand of the Cuban exiles in Miami. It is also allowing private businesses to import their own fuel.

Mr Rubio, however, has said the changes do not go far enough and said all proposals were moot until Cuba puts “new people in charge”. BLOOMBERG