Iranians sceptical, afraid ahead of talks on ending war

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PARIS – Everyday Iranians are awaiting planned negotiations between Washington and Tehran with a mixture of scepticism and outright fear, caught between a government they say does not understand peace and an American president who has threatened to destroy “a whole civilisation”.

Talks between the US and Iran and hosted by Pakistan were hanging in the balance on April 10, but if they go ahead they could transform a temporary ceasefire in the US-Israeli campaign against the Islamic republic into a lasting peace.

Residents of Tehran contacted by AFP from Paris – who withheld their surnames out of concern for their safety – have mixed views on that prospect and are far from optimistic, with feelings ranging from anger, to anxiety, to deep disillusionment.

The negotiations

Mr Amir, a 40-year-old artist, said he did not “think this temporary agreement and negotiation will last even a week”.

Iran’s repressive apparatus – including its Revolutionary Guards, the ideological arm of its military – are seen as having been strengthened by the war that broke out on Feb 28, making a deal all the more unlikely, according to Mr Amir.

“The propaganda machine has delivered them such lies that they really believe they have won the war,” he said. “They cannot last in peace because they don’t understand peace.”

For Ms Sheida, 38, the uncertainty around the talks has generated a sense of anxiety.

“We’ve got so much hardship dumped on us that we don’t even know what to worry about first,” she said. “Now that the ceasefire has started, everyone’s scrambling to settle debts and sort out financial stuff.”

War or the status quo?

A choice between the return of terrifying US-Israeli airstrikes and the preservation of the Islamic republic’s long-standing system is no choice at all, according to Ms Sheida.

“I am scared of the war starting again, and at the same time I’m scared of the regime staying,” she said, adding that “the people in power have become even more aggressive”.

Mr Amir said he would “prefer for the war to continue, to result in the downfall of the regime”.

“If this doesn’t happen, oppression will intensify further,” he said.

If the talks do result in an agreement, he continued, it would likely do little to serve the Iranian people.

He pointed to anti-government protests just before the war that were met with a deadly crackdown, saying he and other like-minded Iranians would keep up their opposition, adding: “We will not forgive our murderers.”

“It is not possible to continue living with the Islamic republic,” he said.

Trump’s shifting goals

Tehran resident Amin, 30, said it was difficult to determine what US President Donald Trump hoped to accomplish in the talks.

“I guess you shouldn’t take Trump so serious,” Mr Amin said. “He wants to erase a civilisation and he makes a ceasefire built on nothing 12 hours later.”

“Most of what he says is just pure noise,” he continued.

Homemaker Shahrzad, 39, said she had been both terrified and disillusioned by Mr Trump’s apocalyptic threat – issued before the ceasefire – that “a whole civilisation will die” if Iran did not reopen the strategic Strait of Hormuz.

“Threatening more than 90 million people with destruction of a civilisation is itself a crime,” she said, describing days filled with fear in the wake of the President’s ultimatum.

“I had hoped for the fall of the Islamic regime and accepted the hardships of war, but now I realise this man is playing the whole world and has no sense of humanity.”

Ms Sheida, meanwhile, questioned Mr Trump’s sense of strategy, saying he must be “either crazy or inexperienced”.

“Did the US president really not realise they could get stuck if the Strait of Hormuz was closed?“

The future of the Islamic republic

At the outset of the war, both Mr Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had suggested their goals included toppling the Islamic republic, though they soon shifted to other aims.

Ms Sara, a 44-year-old graphic designer, said Iran’s “government is an ideological one, and it’s not going to collapse easily”.

“Its mindset exists all the way down to the lowest levels, so it’s really not simple to change,” she added.

Mr Amir said he believed the country’s surviving leaders would continue fighting.

“They are prepared to destroy everything just to prevail,” he added. “The only solution is for the people to rise again or for the regime to be destroyed through war.”

But Mr Amin expressed scepticism at the chances of any popular uprising. “Don’t protest if you want to live,” he warned. AFP