Fearing loss of control, Israel reluctantly backs US-Iran ceasefire but keeps Hezbollah fight out of it

• Israel reluctantly accepts the US-Iran ceasefire, but continues military operations in Lebanon against Hezbollah, viewing them as separate.
• Netanyahu's influence with Trump is declining after the failed predictions about a quick victory in Iran.
• Facing criticism, Netanyahu aims to prevent a permanent US-Iran deal and eliminate Hezbollah, fearing Iran's regional power.

LONDON – Israel has publicly welcomed the ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran, though unease lingers over diplomatic developments that it can no longer control.

“Israel supports President Trump’s decision to suspend attacks against Iran for two weeks, provided that Iran immediately opens the Strait of (Hormuz) and ceases all attacks on the United States, Israel, and countries in the region,” a statement issued by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office read.

But the statement claimed that the ceasefire agreement with Iran “does not include Lebanon”, where Israeli forces are continuing an offensive against Hezbollah, the Iranian-supported local militia.

And although Mr Netanyahu’s closest advisers were quick to claim that the US President had kept the Israeli prime minister “informed” of Washington’s decision to accept the ceasefire deal, they failed to conceal their unease over diplomatic developments that the Jewish state can no longer control, which may severely limit Israel’s room for manoeuvre.

It is noticeable, for instance, that no Israeli official echoed President Trump’s claims that the US and Israel “had achieved their strategic objectives” in Iran. Instead, Israel frames the ceasefire as just a brief pause in a long fight.

Israel’s current key objective is to ensure that the US offers no meaningful concessions to Iran in the upcoming negotiations expected to start by the end of this week in Pakistan.

But the snag for Mr Netanyahu is that his influence in the White House is in a steep decline, and his opponents in Israel are already branding the war against Iran as a major Israeli strategic blunder.

As Israel’s longest-serving prime minister, Mr Netanyahu has spent his entire political life attempting to persuade successive US presidents that the only way of dealing with Iran is by destroying its military and overthrowing its clerical government.

Mr Netanyahu’s success in enlisting President Trump’s support for the 2025 attacks on Iran’s nuclear facilities, as well as the current war, was touted by him as the crowning achievements of his career.

The US-Israeli war against Iran was also designed to boost Mr Netanyahu’s prospects in the Israeli general elections, which have to take place by October.

So confident was the Israeli prime minister of victory in both the war and the elections that officials in Tel Aviv hinted at the possibility of calling a snap election once the war against Iran concluded.

However, events did not unfold according to the Israeli leader’s plan. As always, Israel’s intelligence agencies and the air force performed brilliantly. But, as is often the case with its military campaigns, expectations of the political outcome proved wide off the mark.

Leaks from senior US officials published by the New York Times on Apr 7 confirmed what was long suspected. In early February, Mr Netanyahu persuaded President Trump that there could be a popular uprising inside Iran, that a secular leader could be installed to run the country after a short military campaign, and that the Iranians would not lash out by closing the Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of the world’s oil supply passes.

The moment it became clear that these predictions were disastrously wrong and that the US-Israeli offensive became bogged down in a war of attrition, Mr Netanyahu resorted to the usual tactic he adopts whenever he is cornered: deflecting attention by starting another conflict.

Over the past two weeks, he largely disappeared from the TV screens; reporting on the war against Iran was largely left to Israeli officials and military commanders. And then came the Israeli offensive against Hezbollah in Lebanon.

The Israelis are right in claiming that Hezbollah started the current confrontation by firing missiles at Israel, largely at Iran’s behest. But the current Israeli operation is not just a punitive response; it aims to occupy the southern part of Lebanon to create a buffer zone between Israel and Hezbollah, an operation that has already displaced more than one million Lebanese citizens.

Israeli officials are not disguising their unease over the manner in which President Trump agreed to the latest ceasefire. A senior Israeli source quoted in the early hours of April 8 by Kan, the country’s state broadcaster, claimed that the Israeli government was “surprised” by Mr Trump’s decision.

“We received updates at the last moment when everything seemed decided,” complained the senior Israeli official, who refused to be named.

Still, Mr Netanyahu had no option but to suspend Israeli operations against Iran once President Trump decided to accept a ceasefire.

The Israeli leader cares very little about the finer points of the talks between the US and Iran. Mr Netanyahu believes that as long as Iran’s clerical regime remains standing, the confrontation will continue, making the lull in the fighting only temporary.

Israel’s priority now is to prevent any permanent US-Iranian security deal enshrining Iran’s position as the Middle East’s pre-eminent power, and any connection between a deal on Iran and the fate of the Hezbollah militia in Lebanon. The Israelis remain determined to eliminate Hezbollah, which they view as Iran’s chief regional proxy.

The snag for Mr Netanyahu is that his political influence in Washington is waning. Having persuaded President Trump to embark on a war that turned into a losing political proposition, the Israeli leader has to be careful not to carry the blame for what follows.

Nor can Mr Netanyahu engage in another of his favourite games, which is to play off various political factions in Washington, in the hope of securing a better deal for Israel.

Even those Republicans traditionally close to Israel privately admit that Mr Trump’s association with Mr Netanyahu is now one of the president’s greatest mistakes and political liabilities.

Either way, gone are Mr Netanyahu’s hopes of using a victorious war against Iran to secure re-election.

Israeli opposition leader Yair Lapid has already blasted the prime minister for presiding over the biggest “political disaster” in the Jewish state’s history.

“The (Israeli) military carried out everything that was asked of it, the public demonstrated amazing resilience, but Netanyahu failed politically, failed strategically, and didn’t meet a single one of the goals that he himself set,” Mr Lapid added.

“It will take us years to repair the political and strategic damage that Netanyahu wrought due to arrogance, negligence, and a lack of strategic planning,” he concluded.