Lindsey Graham’s death sets up succession drama in South Carolina

• Senator Lindsey Graham's sudden death creates a contested Senate seat in conservative South Carolina just months before mid-term elections, risking Republican unity and aiding Democrat Annie Andrews.
• Governor Henry McMaster will appoint a temporary replacement, triggering a special primary that may split Republicans; Donald Trump hinted at a preferred candidate but named none.
• Key Republican figures like Nancy Mace, Ralph Norman, and Trey Gowdy consider running, while Nikki Haley declines; Democrats need four seats for Senate control amid GOP challenges.

The sudden death of US Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina sets up a succession drama in the deeply conservative state that risks throwing the race into chaos less than four months before the mid-term elections.

Graham died on July 11 after a “brief and sudden illness”, his office said, two days after his 71st birthday. He had been set to face off against Democrat Annie Andrews, a pediatrician, in November. 

South Carolina Republican Governor Henry McMaster can name a replacement for the remainder of Graham’s term. State election law then calls for a special primary election, creating an intra-party scramble that could help give Andrews an edge.

President Donald Trump said on July 12 that he had a candidate in mind to take over the seat but would not publicly name them because it was “just too soon” after Graham’s death. 

“I don’t want to even talk about anybody. But I do have somebody that I think is really good,” Trump said on NBC’s Meet The Press.

Trump endorsed Lieutenant-Governor Pamela Evette in her failed bid for the Republican nomination for governor but it is not known if she is interested in the seat.

While Andrews is considered a long shot in the safely Republican state, the Democrat is running in an election year that favours outsiders who can communicate effectively on issues like affordability.

Graham, a close ally of Trump, had supported the Iran war, which has driven up gasoline prices and was widely unpopular with voters.

Democrats need a net gain of four seats to win the Senate majority. On July 12, however, Andrews called for “setting partisanship aside and offering gratitude” for Graham’s service to the state.  

Graham’s death, combined with the prolonged hospitalisation of Kentucky Republican Senator Mitch McConnell, narrows the GOP’s majority, at least in the short term. 

Representative Joe Wilson, the state’s senior House member, ruled himself out of the running to replace Graham, posting on social media that he had spoken with Trump on July 12 and “assured” the President that his “goal is to remain in the House to keep his two-vote majority”.

A person familiar with Wilson’s thinking had told Bloomberg that Wilson was interested in filling the seat.

Alan Wilson, the congressman’s son, won the state Republican gubernatorial primary in June, making him the likely winner in a state that last elected a Democratic governor in 1998.

Among the candidates Wilson defeated were Representatives Nancy Mace and Ralph Norman, both of whom could also vie for the Senate seat. 

Mace did not rule out in an appearance on Fox News on July 12 running for the seat in the special election. But on CNN, she said she is not pursuing the interim appointment to fill the seat through January. 

Norman said he will make an announcement on July 14 about his plans to stand in the election, and that he has spoken with Trump about an endorsement, Bloomberg Government reported.  

Other political notables from the Palmetto State who may surface for a rare chance at a Senate seat include former four-term Representative Trey Gowdy. 

Former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley, who served as US ambassador to the United Nations in Trump’s first term and ran against him for the 2024 GOP nomination, “has no plans to run for office at this time”, spokesperson Chaney Denton said in a statement. BLOOMBERG