Majority of Russians expect Ukraine war to end in 2026, state pollster says

Summary

• VTsIOM poll indicates 55% of Russians anticipate the "special military operation" in Ukraine ending by 2026, linking optimism to achieving national interests.
• Factors influencing the expectation of peace include Russia's offensive, US reluctance to fund Ukraine, and the EU's financial limitations.
• Priorities post-conflict include veteran reintegration and reconstruction of Russian-controlled regions and border areas, with 66% supporting peace talks.

MOSCOW - A majority of Russians expect the war in Ukraine to end in 2026, state pollster VTsIOM said on Dec 24, in a sign that the Kremlin could be testing public reaction to a possible peace settlement as diplomatic efforts to end the conflict intensify.

During the pollster’s year-end presentation, VTsIOM deputy head Mikhail Mamonov said 70 per cent of the 1,600 respondents saw 2026 as a more “successful” year for Russia than this year, while for 55 per cent that hope was linked to a possible end to what Russia calls its “special military operation” in Ukraine.

“The main reason for optimism is the possible completion of the special military operation and the achievement of the stated objectives, in line with the national interests outlined by the president,” Mr Mamonov said at the presentation.

In its previous year-end polls, VTsIOM emphasised the consolidation of Russian society around President Vladimir Putin and his military goals in Ukraine but gave no figures for the share of the population expecting the war to end.

Hard to assess real degree of public fatigue

Moscow’s war in Ukraine, which started in February 2022, is nearing its fifth year, but the real level of Russian public fatigue with the conflict is difficult to measure due to strict state controls on dissent.

Mr Mamonov cited the Russian army’s ongoing offensive in Ukraine, US reluctance to finance Ukraine and the European Union’s inability to fully replace the US financially and militarily as the main factors behind the prospects for an eventual peace agreement.

After the end of military hostilities, he added, the reintegration of veterans of the “special military operation” into society and the reconstruction of Russian-controlled regions of Ukraine, as well as Russian border regions, are seen as the main priorities.

Some two thirds of Russians support peace talks, the highest share since the start of the war, according to independent pollster Levada, which has been branded a “foreign agent” under Russian law during the conflict.

The Kremlin said on Dec 24 that Mr Putin has been briefed about his officials’ contacts with President Donald Trump’s envoys on US proposals for a possible Ukrainian peace deal and that Moscow would now formulate its position.

Mr Putin has said in recent weeks that his conditions for peace are that Ukraine should cede the roughly 5,000 sq km of Donbas that it still controls
and that Kyiv should officially renounce its intention to join the NATO military alliance.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Dec 22 that negotiations conducted with the United States and European nations aimed at ending the war with Russia were “very close to a real result”.

On Dec 24, Mr Zelensky called for a meeting with Mr Trump to hammer out the most sensitive issues in a future peace deal, including control of territory. REUTERS