Iran pushing Houthis on Red Sea shipping, officials say

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DUBAI - Iran is pushing the Houthis to prepare for a renewed campaign against Red Sea shipping, contingent upon any further escalation by the US in its war on the Islamic Republic, according to European officials familiar with the matter.

Leaders of the Yemen-based Houthis, a militant group backed by Iran, are weighing options for more aggressive action after launching ballistic missiles at Israel, the officials said, asking not to be named discussing sensitive matters.

There are divisions within the Houthis’ leadership about how aggressive to be and that was partly why the group entered the conflict only a month into it, the officials said.

In an announcement on March 28, the Houthis said they would continue military operations until US-Israeli attacks on Iran and its proxy groups, including Hezbollah in Lebanon, cease.

They specifically did not say they would target tankers or other vessels transiting the Red Sea.

US and Saudi Arabian officials have told European allies they believe the group wants to avoid further escalation and attacks on American and Saudi assets for now, said the officials.

A spokesperson for the Saudi government did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

The White House did not immediately comment on the matter. 

Still, the longer the US-Israeli war against Iran goes on, the more likely the Houthis are to target the Red Sea, the officials added.

They said it was possible the Islamist group could delay a decision as a way of retaining leverage against the US.

One of the officials said an attempted American takeover of Kharg Island – from where Iran exports most of its oil – could prompt the Houthis to expand their attacks.

Any campaign by the Houthis against ships in the southern Red Sea and near the Bab el-Mandeb strait would further upend global energy markets.

The waterway has become crucial following Iran’s effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz since the conflict began on Feb 28.  

With Hormuz blocked, Saudi Arabia has ramped up crude exports from the Red Sea port of Yanbu. For ships going from there to Asia – the biggest buyer of Saudi oil – the Bab el-Mandeb strait is by far the quickest route.

The availability of that alternative outlet has helped limit the rise in oil prices.

The Houthis all but shut the southern Red Sea and Gulf of Aden to Western shipping firms from late 2023, when the war in Gaza between Israel and Hamas erupted.

The Houthis said they were acting in solidarity with the Palestinian group and their attacks continued until a ceasefire in Gaza in October.

But now the Houthis are facing complex decisions about their involvement in the Iran war, the officials said.

From Tehran’s perspective, the threat from its proxy militant group to shipping lanes is another bargaining chip to use in any negotiations with the US, further demonstrating its ability to disrupt the global economy. 

Yet while Iran is the Houthis’ most important backer, they do not automatically act at Tehran’s command.

The group has its own strategic calculations, and it will be wary of triggering a retaliation from the US or Israel while it is still recovering from previous bombing campaigns.

The US targeted the Houthis from January 2025, inflicting significant damage.

Still, it was a costly operation for Washington and US President Donald Trump agreed to a truce with them in May of that year.

Even as they face pressure from Iran, the Houthis would need to justify entering the war at a time when the economy in areas they control is in very bad shape.

Around half of Yemen is suffering from acute hunger, according to the United Nations.

An extreme faction wants to carry out more expansive attacks while other, more moderate, figures have resisted such a strategy.

The decision to target Israel last weekend represented a compromise between divided factions, the officials said.

The Israeli government has not reported any casualties from the Houthis’ missiles fired since the weekend. BLOOMBERG