Trump approval rises from record low to 32% ahead of US midterms, Reuters/Ipsos poll finds

• Trump’s approval rose to 32%, still near a record low, as Republicans fought to keep control of Congress before the Nov 3 midterms.
• Reuters/Ipsos found Democrats ahead by 47% to 36% in the generic ballot, or 50% to 41% with undecided voters included.
• Inflation and living costs are shaping the race. Voters see Democrats as stronger on the economy, and Democrats seem more eager to vote.

WASHINGTON – President Donald Trump’s public approval rating inched higher to 32%, up a percentage point from his record low a week earlier, ahead of the Nov 3 US midterm elections that will decide which party controls Congress, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll that closed on Oct 26.

Trump’s fellow Republicans are fighting to retain the party’s majorities in the House of Representatives and Senate.

The five-day poll, which was conducted nationwide, also showed that registered voters broadly favoured Democrats over Republicans by 47% to 36% when asked which party they would vote for in what is known as a “generic ballot” question. Some 11% said they did not know who they would vote for if the election were held today.

That gap of 11 percentage points between Democrats and Republicans was 1 percentage point tighter than in a Reuters/Ipsos poll that closed on Oct 19. 

The poll that closed on Oct 26 additionally asked undecided voters which party they were leaning toward. Factoring in their responses, the national race appeared somewhat tighter, with Democrats leading by 9 percentage points, 50% to 41%.

For Republicans, losing control of either chamber could complicate Trump’s agenda in the last two years of his second term as president.

Generic ballot polls are national polls that provide an overall view of which party poll respondents would like to see in charge in Congress.

While these polls provide a view of national public sentiment, they do not capture the nuances of the state-by-state and district-by-district contests that determine control of the Senate and House, contests in which Republicans hold some structural advantages.

Steep Senate climb for Democrats

Political analysts generally see the Democrats having a good chance of winning control of the House, but think they face a steeper climb to win the Senate.

It remains to be seen how many voters will actually cast ballots. The voters who appeared most likely to vote still favoured Democrats over Republicans by 9 percentage points, 53% to 44%.

The fight for Congress has appeared to turn on views around inflation, which has surged since Trump ordered military strikes on Iran in February that sent petrol prices higher. Some 73% of voters in the poll said their cost of living was heading in the wrong direction.

Prior to the start of the war, Reuters/Ipsos polls showed voters preferring Republicans over Democrats as the better stewards of the US economy. The latest poll showed 37% of voters said Democrats have a better approach on the economy, compared to 33% who picked Republicans on the issue.

The poll also suggested Democratic voters were more excited about voting, with 46% of Democrats saying they were very enthusiastic about the midterms, compared to 30% of Republicans who said the same.

The Reuters/Ipsos poll, which was conducted online, gathered responses from 1,679 US adults, including 1,280 registered voters, and had a margin of error of 2 percentage points for all adults and 3 points for registered voters. REUTERS