China’s military build-up makes US vulnerable: Pentagon report

WASHINGTON - The Chinese military is in the midst of a “historic military build-up” that has made the US homeland “increasingly vulnerable”, according to the latest edition of a Pentagon report on the capabilities of China’s military, presenting a challenge to President Donald Trump’s plans for new limitations on US, Chinese and Russian nuclear arsenals.

The congressionally mandated report, posted on the Pentagon website on Dec 23, is the first version issued during the second Trump administration.

It describes a Chinese military that is increasingly sophisticated and resilient, wary of large-scale agreements with the US and learning lessons from Russia’s setbacks in Ukraine as it increases pressure on Taiwan.

And while the report notes China and Russia continue to deepen their strategic partnership, “almost certainly driven by a shared interest in countering the United States”, that cooperation is hindered by both sides harbouring a “mutual distrust” of each other.

The report underscores China’s “large and growing arsenal” of nuclear, maritime, conventional long-range strike, cyber and space capabilities, which it said is able to “directly threaten America’s security”.

It notes that China’s stockpile of nuclear warheads was in the low 600s through 2024, reflecting a slower rate of production when compared with previous years. The report did not explain what might have caused the slowdown.

President Xi Jinping has unleashed a sweeping purge of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) in recent years, starting with the Rocket Force that oversees the nuclear arsenal and a department that manages equipment procurement.

The anti-corruption campaign “is very likely creating reverberations within China’s nuclear forces and may be raising questions among leadership about force readiness”, the report said. 

It added that the probes and removals of senior officers “very likely risk short-term disruptions in the operational effectiveness of the PLA” and have caused “uncertainty over organisation priorities”.

Despite the slowdown in warhead production, the PLA has continued its massive nuclear expansion and remains on track to have over 1,000 nuclear warheads by 2030, the report said, referring to an earlier estimate by the Pentagon.

It revealed that China had likely loaded more than 100 solid-fuelled DF-31 intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) into its three silo fields in the north. The move is likely intended to support China’s early warning counterstrike capability, it added.

Asked about the report’s claims on China’s silo-loaded ICBMs and apparent lack of desire for arms control talks at a regular briefing on Dec 23, a spokesman for the Chinese Foreign Ministry did not directly comment on the details.

Mr Lin Jian accused the US of creating a “pretext for speeding up the upgrade of US nuclear power and disrupting global strategic stability”, and urged Washington to make “drastic and substantive cut” to its own nuclear arsenal.

“China keeps its nuclear strength at the minimum level required by national security and does not engage in any nuclear arms race with any country,” Mr Lin said.

The Pentagon report also highlights the PLA’s progress towards its 2027 targets – the first stage in Mr Xi’s strategy for military modernisation. It described the goals as achieving “strategic decisive victory” over Taiwan, “strategic counterbalance” against the US, and “strategic deterrence and control” against other regional countries.

“In other words, China expects to be able to fight and win a war on Taiwan by the end of 2027,” the report said, adding that the PLA is refining multiple military options to “force Taiwan unification by brute force”. Those options range from an amphibious invasion to a maritime blockade, it said.

Experts have warned that China is outpacing the US on the development of hypersonic weapons. Mr Trump’s planned “Golden Dome” system is intended to defend against those and other innovative threats, as well as more traditional ballistic missiles.

The most recent edition of the report, published in December 2024 by the Biden administration, warned that China was the only competitor to the US that has “the intent and, increasingly, the capacity to reshape the international order”. It emphasised the importance of meeting the challenge of China’s “increasingly capable military”.

During the first Trump administration, a September 2020 iteration of the report found that Beijing was engaged in “a determined pursuit of political and social modernity that includes far-ranging efforts to expand China’s national power, perfect its governance systems, and revise the international order”.

The report’s release follows the issuance of the National Security Strategy, which focused less on the threat from China than on the Western Hemisphere and domestic issues.

The Biden administration’s 2022 National Defence Strategy defined China as the main geopolitical “pacing challenge” for the US military in terms of military competition.

Reuters earlier reported on the findings of a draft version of the report, which has been required since the passage of the National Defense Authorization Act for fiscal year 2000. The Defence Department issues a classified version of its findings to Congress and releases an unclassified summary to the public. BLOOMBERG