Three weeks in, Iran war escalates beyond Trump’s control

Summary

• President Trump faces a crisis in the Iran war as global energy prices surge and allies refuse to help secure the Strait of Hormuz, despite his claims of military victory.
• The US president's lack of a clear exit strategy risks his legacy and Republican prospects, with allies reluctant and domestic support potentially weakening.
• Iran retaliates by striking Gulf states and disrupting oil supplies, exposing miscalculations in the US plan and raising concerns about a prolonged conflict.

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WASHINGTON – US President Donald Trump ends the third week of the Iran war confronting a crisis that seems to be slipping out of his hands: Global energy prices are surging, the US stands isolated from its allies, and more troops are preparing to deploy despite his promise that the war would be only a “short excursion”.

A defensive Mr Trump called other NATO countries “cowards” for refusing to help secure the Strait of Hormuz and insisted the campaign was unfolding according to plan.

But his declaration on March 20 that the battle “was militarily WON” clashed with the reality of a defiant Iran that is choking off Gulf oil and gas supplies while launching missile strikes across the region.

Mr Trump, who took office promising to keep the US out of “stupid” military interventions, now appears to control neither the outcome nor the messaging of a conflict he helped to initiate.

The lack of a clear exit strategy carries risks for both his presidential legacy and his party’s political prospects, as Republicans scramble to defend narrow majorities in Congress in the November midterm elections.

“Trump has built himself a box called the Iran war, and he can’t figure out how to get out of it,” said Mr Aaron David Miller, a former Middle East negotiator for Republican and Democratic administrations. “That’s his biggest source of frustration.”

A White House official challenged that characterisation, with many of Iran’s top leaders eliminated in targeted killings, most of its navy sunk and its ballistic missile arsenal largely destroyed.

“This has been an undisputed military success,” the official said.

The limits of Mr Trump’s power – diplomatically, militarily and politically – were thrown into sharp relief over the past week.

He was caught off guard by the resistance of fellow NATO members and other foreign partners to deploying their navies to help secure the Strait of Hormuz, according to another White House official, who, like other officials Reuters spoke to for this story, was granted anonymity to discuss internal deliberations.

With the President not wanting to appear isolated, some White House aides have advised Mr Trump to quickly find an “off-ramp” and set limits on the military operation’s scope, said one person close to the discussions.

But it was unclear whether that argument was enough to sway Mr Trump.

In the view of some analysts, allies’ unwillingness reflects not only their reluctance over entanglement in a war they were not consulted on, but a backlash against his belittling of traditional US alliances since his return to office 14 months ago.

Differences with Israel have also begun surfacing, with Mr Trump insisting that he knew nothing in advance about the Israeli attack on Iran’s South Pars gas field, while Israeli officials said the strike had indeed been coordinated with the US.

Mr Trump now finds himself at a crossroads in Operation Epic Fury, with no clear sign of which path he might take, analysts say.

He could go all in and intensify the US offensive, possibly even seizing Iran’s oil hub on Kharg Island or deploying troops along Iran’s coast to hunt for missile launchers, but that would risk a long-term military commitment that the American public would mostly oppose.

Or, with both sides rejecting negotiations for now, Mr Trump could declare victory and try to walk away, which could alienate Gulf allies who would be left with a wounded, hostile Iran – one that could still pursue a crude nuclear weapon and still exert control over shipping in the Gulf.

Iran has denied that it is seeking a nuclear weapon.

Reuters reported on March 20 that the US military is deploying thousands of additional marines and sailors to the Middle East, although no decision had been made to send troops into Iran itself.

The war has also shown Mr Trump’s once-iron grip over his MAGA movement is weakening, with prominent influencers speaking out against the conflict. While his base has mostly stood with him so far, analysts say Mr Trump’s control could weaken in the coming weeks if gas prices keep rising and US troops are deployed.

“As the economics play themselves out, people will start to say: ‘Why am I paying high gas prices again? Why is the Strait of Hormuz now determining whether or not I can take a vacation next month?’” Republican strategist Dave Wilson said.

Lost his messaging mojo

Since the war’s start on Feb 28, there has been a growing realisation within the administration that the conflict and its consequences should have been better mapped out in advance, according to two sources familiar with White House thinking, although the first White House official countered that the campaign was extensively planned and well-equipped for any potential action.

Analysts say Mr Trump’s biggest misjudgment was over how Iran would respond to a conflict that it considers existential.

Tehran has retaliated with its remaining missiles and a fleet of armed drones to offset its foes’ military superiority, striking neighbouring Gulf states and mostly shutting down the Strait of Hormuz, the conduit for a fifth of the world’s oil.

Whether or not Mr Trump and his aides foresaw the dangers, they have been unable to counter them effectively.

“They failed to think through the contingencies around ways in which a conflict with Iran could go sideways, where it might not go according to the plan as they laid out,” said former US ambassador John Bass, who served in Afghanistan and Turkey.

As the conflict has dragged on, there have been increasing signs of Mr Trump’s frustration with his inability to control the narrative.

In recent days, he has torn into the news media, advancing unfounded allegations of “treason” for reporting that he sees as undermining the war effort.

“He’s finding it difficult to drive the news cycle, as he’s accustomed to, because he still can’t explain why he’s taken this country to war and what comes next,” said Mr Brett Bruen, a former foreign policy adviser in the Obama administration who now heads the Situation Room strategic consultancy in Washington. “He seems to have lost his mojo on messaging.” REUTERS