Iran war looms over Trump’s China visit, shifts Middle East alliances

• Israel and UAE achieved an "historic breakthrough" in relations, while Saudi Arabia and Kuwait launched hidden military strikes against Iran-backed militias in Iraq, reflecting shifting regional alliances.
• Iran has tightened control over the Strait of Hormuz, cutting oil deals and viewing its supervision as a long-term strategic goal to increase revenue and foreign policy leverage.
• US and Iranian peace demands remain "far apart" despite a ceasefire, while the ongoing conflict has severely impacted global oil supply and led to continued Israeli strikes in Lebanon.

Follow our live coverage here.

WASHINGTON/JERUSALEM/RIYADH - The US-Israeli war in Iran loomed over US President Donald Trump’s visit to China on May 13, as signs emerged that the conflict is shifting alliances across the Middle East.

Mr Trump arrived in Beijing on May 13 ahead of talks with President Xi Jinping set to begin on May 14. He is expected to ask for China’s help to resolve the costly and unpopular conflict, which he launched in late February, but analysts say he is unlikely to get the support he wants.

New reports on May 13 highlighted how the Iran war is accelerating geopolitical realignment across the region.

Israel revealed that Prime Minister Netanyahu secretly travelled to the UAE in March for talks with Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed, which Israel said resulted in an “historic breakthrough” in Israel’s relations with the UAE.

The two countries re-established ties in 2020 as part of the Trump-backed Abraham Accords, but the relationship has strengthened after the UAE came under Iranian attack.

Separately, Reuters reported that Saudi fighter jets have bombed Iran-backed militias in Iraq, part of a broader pattern of military responses involving Gulf nations during the war that have remained hidden.

Retaliatory strikes were also launched from Kuwait into Iraq, sources said.

Tehran, meanwhile, has tightened its grip on the Strait of Hormuz, which before the war handled one-fifth of the world’s oil supply, cutting deals with Iraq and Pakistan to ship oil and liquefied natural gas from the region, according to sources with knowledge of the matter.

Iranian officials have signalled they see that control as a long-term strategic goal. An army spokesperson said supervision of the waterway could generate revenue amounting to twice Iran’s oil income, while strengthening its foreign policy leverage.

“After this war ends, there will be no place for retreat,” the spokesperson said, according to comments carried by ISNA news agency.

More than one month after a tenuous ceasefire took effect, US and Iranian demands to end the war remain far apart. Washington has called for Tehran to scrap its nuclear programme and lift its hold on the strait, while Iran has demanded compensation for war damage, an end to the US blockade and a halt to fighting on all fronts, including in Lebanon, where Israel is battling Iran-backed Hezbollah. Mr Trump has dismissed those positions as “garbage”.

Chinese supertanker crosses strait

The conflict is weighing heavily on global energy markets. Global oil supply will fall by around 3.9 million barrels per day in 2026 and undershoot demand due to disruptions caused by the Iran war, the International Energy Agency said on May 13, with more than one billion barrels of Middle East supply already lost.

The Trump administration said on May 12 that senior US and Chinese officials had agreed in April that no country should be able to charge tolls on traffic through the region, in an effort to project consensus on the issue ahead of the summit.

China, a major buyer of Iranian oil that maintains close ties with Tehran, did not dispute that account. On May 13, a Chinese supertanker carrying two million barrels of Iraqi crude sailed through the Strait of Hormuz, ship-tracking data showed, marking the third known passage by a Chinese oil tanker through the channel since the US and Israel launched strikes on Iran on Feb 28.

Other countries are exploring shipping arrangements similar to Tehran’s deals with Iraq and Pakistan, sources said, potentially entrenching Tehran’s control of the waterway through which fertilisers, petrochemicals and other bulk commodities vital to global supply chains normally flow.

Israel continues to strike Lebanon

Iran has demanded security guarantees for Lebanon as part of its proposal to end the wider war, but despite a US-mediated ceasefire announced in April, Israel has continued to strike Hezbollah. On May 13, Israeli airstrikes on cars in Lebanon killed 12 people, including two children, according to Lebanon’s health ministry.

Some of the strikes targeted vehicles well beyond the main theatre of conflict in the south, on the coastal highway south of Beirut, security sources said. REUTERS