British PM Starmer grapples with Ukraine crisis as threats swirl over his own political future

LONDON – Mr Keir Starmer is struggling to balance a foreign affairs agenda dominated by the prospect of war with a domestic one filled with swirling chatter about his own future as Labour Party leader and British prime minister.

Amid a round of European diplomacy aimed at forging a unified position on Ukraine, NATO chief Mark Rutte warned this week that the West “must be prepared for the scale of war our grandparents and great-grandparents endured”.

One of Mr Starmer’s own defence ministers, Mr Al Carns, remarked that “the shadow of war is knocking on Europe’s door once more”, while the premier himself talked of Russia’s war in Ukraine entering a “critical stage”.

Yet the conversation at Westminster is far removed from the European security crisis dominating the attention of its leaders.

Rather than spending their days discussing the future of the transatlantic alliance or the prospect of a new global conflict, many Labour Members of Parliament are talking about who should replace Mr Starmer and when.

Squaring the disconnect between domestic politics and international events is proving a challenge for Mr Starmer as Labour languishes behind Mr Nigel Farage’s populist Reform UK party in polling less than 18 months after winning power in an electoral landslide
. 

Among Labour MPs, it is seen as possible, even likely, that he will face a leadership challenge after a set of local elections in May, with the likes of British Health Secretary Wes Streeting, former deputy premier Angela Rayner and Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham seen as contenders to succeed him.

Bets on bookmaking sites show a roughly 60 per cent chance that Mr Starmer will have to leave office in 2026. 

While Mr Starmer has sought to position himself as an integral player in the Russia-Ukraine war and key interlocutor between US President Donald Trump and Europe, his popularity in Britain has stuttered.

Two difficult Budgets, flat-lining economic growth and a series of perceived policy failings on areas from immigration to house-building have led to intense speculation that the governing Labour Party could change its leader in 2026. 

It is a predicament with which Europe’s other leaders might have some sympathy.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s government has faced question marks about its future in its first year in office, with the far-right Alternative for Germany leading in some opinion polls.

French President Emmanuel Macron has his own travails stemming from his declining approval and weak minority in France’s Parliament.

Mr Starmer’s aides know that to counter his internal threats, he needs to show he is paying attention to the issues at home that matter most to the public, from the cost of living to immigration and public services.

But that is a tricky prospect when there is so much at stake in the international arena.

In recent days, he has been on the road to sell his policies in Wales, Scotland and around England, while launching a Substack newsletter and TikTok account in a bid to reach voters and cut through the noise of social media news.

The British government has announced action on child poverty, rail fares and a national influenza outbreak, even as much of Mr Starmer’s focus has been on tense calls with other European leaders and with Mr Trump about Ukraine.

Next week, the British Prime Minister will face a similar challenge.

On Dec 15, he is expected to travel to Berlin for further talks with European counterparts, a person familiar with the matter said, as the US pushes ahead with attempts to get a peace deal.

It is unclear how that will dovetail with a prior commitment at 2pm the same day to answer questions from MPs on Parliament’s Liaison Committee. 

For many of his own MPs, however, far more interesting are questions of whether Mr Streeting or Ms Rayner would be a likely front runner in any leadership context, whether they could team up for a joint ticket, and whether they are able to mount a coup before Mr Burnham is able to secure a parliamentary seat, allowing him to stand in any contest.

There is frustration in government at the attention being given by Labour MPs to the question of Britain’s leadership at such a dangerous international moment. 

A senior civil servant, who served under the chaotic period of Conservative rule when that party had five prime ministers in little more than six years, told Bloomberg the recent tendency in British politics to shuffle through leaders made it far harder for the state to function properly.

The person added that Ukrainian officials had often despaired at the repeated changes since Russia launched its full-scale invasion
in 2022.

Some loyalist MPs echo that sentiment. 

“It’s not easy being in government,” one Labour lawmaker, Mr Luke Akehurst, said this week in a plea to colleagues at a drinks reception.

“It’s our job to get the message out, and if we spend our time when we’re chatting to journalists speculating about who’s up, who’s down, fantasy leadership scenarios that we would like to have happened, all we give them is more stuff that they can write up that damages us.”

Mr Starmer’s critics contend that he has only himself to blame for the doubts about his position.

Criticisms about policy and political strategy aside, even his allies concede that his operation has not done enough to keep its own MPs happy.

That is something they have sought to rectify, both with crowd-pleasing announcements on typical Labour causes like child poverty, and more engagement with lawmakers including invitations to the premier’s grace-and-favour country residence, Chequers.

At prime minister’s questions this week, Conservative MP Luke Evans criticised Mr Starmer for spending so much time out of the country, a common refrain since he took office.

“What a load of nonsense,” Mr Starmer replied, insisting the outcome of the Russia-Ukraine war had consequences for “the whole of Europe and the values that we hold dear”.

The problem the British Prime Minister finds is that many of his own MPs seem to have more sympathy with that Tory question than his answer to it. BLOOMBERG