No plane, no gain: US aviation sanctions ground ordinary Iranians while missing the regime 

• The US sanctions on Iran's aviation sector have severely restricted travel and commerce, causing cancellations and complicating access to medicines and essential goods.
• These sanctions mainly hurt ordinary Iranians, increasing economic hardship with soaring inflation, job scarcity, and disrupted education and migration plans.
• Experts doubt sanctions will force regime change, warning they may strengthen Iran's leadership while lacking a clear, cohesive US strategy.

ISTANBUL – Hossein-Reza’s plans to leave Iran for a trip to see friends and family in the Netherlands in October were waylaid by the US imposition of sanctions on the country’s aviation sector in August as part of Operation Economic Outcast – Washington’s attempt to isolate Iran economically.

Would he be able to find a ticket to Amsterdam, he wondered? Would he be forced to travel by road to neighbouring Turkey or Armenia? 

While some respond to such uncertainty with anxiety or even dread, Hossein-Reza, a 40-something documentarist, was relaxed. 

After a year in Iran that included chaos and gunfire on the streets, warfare in the skies, internet blockages and economic devastation, and questions about the country’s very future, he is taking the travel hiccup in his stride. 

“I never even try to book a ticket until a day or two before I have to leave,” he said in an interview, on the condition that his full name not be published. 

The US has placed some of the toughest financial restrictions on Iran ever imposed on an adversary – and the sanctions continue to intensify as the conflict drags on. 

The pressure campaign has gone far beyond travel bans on targeted individuals or sanctions on the weapons trade or dual-use goods to include, since September, punishments of third-country companies that do business with 27 airlines and companies in Iran’s civilian airline sector and restrictions on the country’s auto and rail industry.

The result has complicated the supply of some crucial medicines into the country as well as any travel and commerce. Flights to a number of neighbouring countries – including Iraq, Azerbaijan and Oman – have been cancelled. However, air travel to Russia and China have not been affected, and sporadic flights to the major air hubs of Istanbul and Dubai continue. 

A video posted on social media platform X on Sept 24 showed a flight crew aboard an Iranian Varesh Airlines flight from Tehran to the Tajikistan capital of Dushanbe returning home after its route through Azerbaijani airspace was denied.

The severe sanctions on aviation add to what many describe as growing despair and malaise among many ordinary Iranians. 

“Iranians will be resilient as long as there is hope,” said one Western diplomat who recently left Tehran. “But if there’s no light at the end of the tunnel, there is less reason to stay steadfast.”

Hamidreza Ahmadi, a Tehran tech entrepreneur, described growing frustration among ordinary Iranians as they struggle to understand the uncertainties the conflict has thrust upon their lives.

He described frustration over contradictory statements and goals by US President Donald Trump – from regime change, to a peace deal, to halting a nuclear programme supposedly destroyed in 2025, to reopening the Strait of Hormuz that was already open before the war began. 

“Geopolitically, everyone’s very, very confused,” he said. “Like, what do you mean America’s almost out of munitions? How could that be? They see Iran is getting weaker. They feel that. But they also see a bunch of Iranian missiles and a bunch of drones landing.”

Iranians describe difficulties in securing jobs, with youth unemployment rates estimated to be as high as 50%, a freezing of investment and business expansions, as well as price increases, including for subsidised fuel and petroleum products that are the lifeblood of the Iranian economy. Prices for some drugs have tripled, according to local reports, while food prices have soared. Iran’s year-on-year inflation reached 84% in August. 

“Sanctions are something that, wherever you are on the political spectrum, affects you on a daily basis, and nobody can see a way out of it,” Ahmadi said in an interview. 

In theory, sanctions are supposed to punish the regime rather than ordinary people. But compliance experts say companies effectively refrain from doing even non-restricted commerce with entities linked to a country as heavily sanctioned as Iran.

“Most companies are going to de-risk and just not assume the legal hurdles that need to be jumped through,” Brett Erickson, founder of Obsidian Risk Advisors, a US consultancy focused on international crime and due diligence, told The Straits Times.

“And that’s something we see with Gaza and Yemen and so many countries where technically it is allowed. But in reality, we see huge shortfalls as a result of companies not wanting to assume the risk.”

Pharmaceuticals and foods are specifically excluded from sanctions, but companies often refrain just to avoid the hassles and hurdles of any trade with Iran. 

Trump administration officials and their supporters know that the sanctions hurt ordinary Iranians. But this is precisely the goal – raise public frustrations to a level where the people turn on the regime.  Beyond sanctions, the US has very few options, experts said. 

“The problem with sanctions is we’ve plucked all the low-hanging fruit,” Alan Eyre, a former US State Department official who was part of the team that negotiated the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran said in an interview.

“We’ve plucked all the high-hanging fruit. We’ve cut the tree down. So it’s not as if there are a lot of super-duper effective sanctions that we haven’t used.”

The latest round of sanctions significantly differs from previous rounds because they focus on an entire sector of the economy, regardless of whether an individual or company is involved in any activity deemed harmful by the US.

“It essentially just cuts off the entire industry, regardless of whether it has a nexus to someone who is sanctioned by the US,” said Erickson.

“It is a very significant measure. And again, it does need to be understood that the overwhelming hardship will be shouldered by the civilian population. Obviously, things can be transshipped into Russia and China and other countries that refuse to play ball, and that will be significant for the Iranian government.”

Observers are closely watching how aggressively Washington attempts to enforce sanctions on third countries such as Turkey or the United Arab Emirates, as well as China, which has vowed to ignore. But the sanctions may be the most severe Iranians have faced and potentially the hardest to circumvent.

“They figure out how to operate within the parameters of the sanctions,” said Ali Ahmadi (no relation to Hamidreza Ahmadi), a fellow at the Switzerland-based Geneva Centre for Security Policy who regularly travels between Iran and the West. 

Ahmadi was recently in Tehran and booked a flight on an obscure airline, which was cancelled at the last minute, but managed to rebook on a different airline.  “When I called the website I was buying the tickets from, they said pick one of the more reputable, bigger names because they already know how to get through the sanctions,” he recalled. 

Others have found the new restrictions more challenging. Maziar, a 42-year-old in Tehran, is struggling to get his frail 86-year-old back from a trip to visit relatives in California. 

“I’ve been trying to figure out the least exhausting path for my dad to get back to Iran,” he said, asking his family name not be disclosed. “We were hoping to use the Dubai route. But that’s no longer an option. We’re going to wait it out a bit longer and hope for a better option and if the situation doesn’t change we’ll have to use the land border crossing via Turkey.”

Even Iranians sympathetic to the US are angered by the latest US sanctions. One impact of the latest round of restrictions has been the cancellation of the English-language proficiency tests required for overseas employment or education because the companies running the paid exams fear the wrath of the US Treasury Department.

Iranians spending years on plans to study or move abroad suddenly found their dreams thwarted. “On paper, sanctions are supposed to make the government weaker, but how is cancelling tests making the government weaker?” said one Tehran resident, who asked that her name not be published.  

Even as prices for food and medicine in Iran increase, there have been no reported shortages of luxury goods - another sign that the sanctions are mostly squeezing the poor. 

Observers have criticised the US strategy as rudderless, aimed more at satisfying Washington hawks’ demands for action rather than part of a cohesive strategy. 

“Within the context of US policy as a whole, pressure for pressure’s sake has become ossified,” Ahmadi of the Geneva Centre said.  “Like you’ve got to do something. What’s the next measure? Do that. Istanbul Airport is probably kind of vulnerable to US sanctions. Okay, we’ll threaten to sanction them. There’s no strategy here.”

Iran experts, including former US officials, have publicly voiced doubt that ratcheting up economic pressure will convince the Iranian government to give in to US demands - in fact, it could have the opposite effect.

 “The people running Iran think that if they just show any weakness in the face of all this pressure, it’s going to lead to them being swept out of power.” said Eyre, the former State Department official. “That’s why sanctions are unlikely to work.”