Carney clinches majority government to push energy and trade ambitions

Prime Minister Mark Carney secured a majority government after his Liberal Party won a key special election, giving his administration the ability to push ahead faster with an economic agenda centred on expanding energy exports and reducing Canada’s reliance on the US.

Early projections from the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation show the Liberals winning Toronto’s University-Rosedale district – the seat formerly held by Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland.

A second race in the city has yet to be called, while a third contest in Terrebonne, near Montreal, is expected to be a tight competition between the Liberals and the separatist Bloc Quebecois.

By clinching the Toronto district, the Liberals now hold more than half the seats in the House of Commons. That makes it easier for Mr Carney to pass major legislation and clears the way for his economic priorities: increased defence spending and construction of large infrastructure projects, including ports and energy export facilities.

It is the first time any Canadian political party has had a majority government since 2019.

The past year has brought a historic turnaround for the Liberals, whose prospects were in steep decline under former prime minister Justin Trudeau before his resignation in January 2025.

Mr Trudeau’s departure – combined with Mr Donald Trump’s return to the White House – reshaped Canada’s political landscape.

Mr Carney, a former central bank governor, persuaded Canadians he was the right person to lead the country through tumultuous economic times and steered the Liberals to a near-majority win in April 2025, falling just short of the threshold. With the new seats, another federal election is unlikely anytime soon.

Since taking office, Mr Carney has pushed to diversify Canada’s trade relationships and build new export infrastructure. However, he has yet to gain any ground with the US in reducing tariffs on steel, aluminum and autos. 

His most contentious moves have come on climate and energy policy, where he has rolled back several of Mr Trudeau’s environmental measures while promoting growth in oil and gas production. His Quebec lieutenant, a former environment minister, resigned from his Cabinet in protest. 

Two of the special elections were triggered by the departures of former Trudeau cabinet ministers Bill Blair and Freeland, whose Toronto districts are traditional Liberal strongholds. The Montreal-area seat was opened up when the Supreme Court invalidated the 2025 one-vote Liberal victory due to a mail-in ballot error.

The Liberals’ candidate in Scarborough Southwest Doly Begum resigned as deputy leader of the left-wing Ontario New Democratic Party to run federally under Mr Carney – a sign of his cross-party appeal.

Mr Carney’s path to a majority was also paved by five defections. Four Conservative lawmakers and one New Democrat crossed the floor of the House to join the government caucus.

Such moves are permitted in Canada’s parliamentary system but remain rare; the last prime minister to attract so many opposition members was Mr Jean Chretien in 2000.

The defections underscore Mr Carney’s current popularity. A Nanos Research poll from early April shows the Liberals leading the Conservatives by 15 points, while Mr Carney holds a more than 30-point advantage over Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre as preferred prime minister.

For Mr Poilievre, the Liberal majority is a significant setback. Once favoured to become Canada’s next prime minister, he is now facing increased scrutiny over his leadership style after the loss of four elected members.

Still, there is no immediate sign of an internal push to oust him, and he easily secured a vote of confidence from party members at a January convention. BLOOMBERG