Will Bengal Witness Close Fights Or Decisive Wins? What Past 2 Polls Show

Data from the last two elections show that Bengal is moving towards more decisive results, with a growing share of seats being won by large margins.

28 Mar 2026, 05:06 · www.ndtv.com

New Delhi:

West Bengal elections are around the corner, and the state is once again looking forward to high voter participation. As the campaign begins, one key question remains intact: how decisive will this election be? Victory margins from past elections show that voters strongly back parties, which eventually translates into decisive results.

More Decisive Than Before

A comparison of 2016 and 2021 results shows a clear shift in how seats were won. In 2016, most victories were in the mid-range. Nearly 74 per cent of all seats -- 219 seats -- were decided by a margin of 5,000 to 25,000 votes. Only 98 seats, about 33 per cent, had margins above 25,000 votes.

This pattern changed in 2021. Seats with margins above 25,000 increased to 132, or about 44 per cent of all seats. Also, seats won by a victory margin of 10,000 to 25,000 votes fell from 121 to 98. Lower-margin categories remained limited, with only seven seats decided by less than 1,000 votes.

This indicates how Bengal elections are becoming more decisive. A larger share of seats is now being won with clear gaps, rather than close contests.

Clear Advantage For AITC

The shift towards bigger margins has benefited AITC more than the BJP. In 2021, AITC won 118 seats with margins above 25,000, while BJP won only 13 in this category. BJP's growth is visible in the lower and mid categories. The party improved its numbers in seats with a victory margin below 10,000 and those between 10,000 and 25,000.

This pattern suggests that the BJP had expanded its reach, but the AITC received stronger and more decisive voter support across many constituencies.

Few Seats Still Saw Close Fights

Even as margins widened overall, some seats remained tightly contested. Only seven constituencies in 2021 had margins below 1,000 votes. These include Balarampur, Dinhata, Ghatal, Kulti, Dantan, Tamluk and Jalpaiguri. BJP won four of these seats, while AITC won three.

These constituencies show that close contests still exist, but they are limited compared to the larger trend of decisive victories. Tamluk stands out as a constituency with a long history of close contests. Data going back to 1962 shows that the seat has frequently seen narrow margins. It recorded margins of just 116 votes in 1977, 330 in 1996, 520 in 2016 and 793 in 2021.

Clean Sweeps And Tight Battles

The full constituency-level data highlights the wide range of margins across the state. The biggest wins were seen in seats like Gosaba (1.66 lakh), Dinhata (1.64 lakh), Sujapur (1.30 lakh), Khardaha (1.22 lakh) and Metiaburuz (1.19 lakh). These are clear examples of strong mandates. In contrast, the closest fights include Balarampur (423 votes), Dantan (623), Kulti (679), Tamluk (793) and Jalpaiguri (941).

Will The Trend Continue?

Data from the last two elections show that Bengal is moving towards more decisive results, with a growing share of seats being won by large margins. AITC has been the main beneficiary of this shift. As the 2026 election approaches, the key question is whether this pattern will continue or if more seats will return to close contests. The answer will shape not just the result, but also how strong the mandate will be.

Polling in the 294 constituencies of West Bengal will take place on April 23 and April 29, when over seven crore voters will decide the fate of the state.

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