Strait Of Hormuz After Ceasefire: What Has Changed, What Hasn't

The Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's most critical shipping lanes, has begun to see limited movement again after Iran agreed to reopen it under a temporary ceasefire with the United States.

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  • The Strait of Hormuz has reopened under a two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran
  • Ship traffic remains 95% below normal with only 8 commodity carriers crossing daily
  • Around 800 ships remain stranded, holding 172 million barrels of oil at sea

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The Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's most critical shipping lanes, has begun to see limited movement again after Iran agreed to reopen it under a temporary ceasefire with the United States. But traffic remains a fraction of normal levels, and hundreds of ships are still stranded.

The Strait, a strip of water only 34 kilometres (21 miles) wide between Iran and Oman, provides passage from the Gulf to the Indian Ocean and is the main route for about a fifth of the world's oil supplies and other vital goods, including fertiliser.

Nearly 20% of the world's crude oil and Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) passes through the strait during peacetime.

The current crisis began on February 28, when the United States and Israel launched strikes on Iran, triggering retaliation and restrictions of the Hormuz.

The Iranian navy on Wednesday informed ships near the Strait of Hormuz that they still needed Tehran's permission to cross the strait. The navy warned vessels via radio that any ship attempting to pass without permission would face destruction, according to a report by the Wall Street Journal.

Ceasefire Brings First Ship Movements

A two-week ceasefire between the United States and Iran came into effect overnight Tuesday-Wednesday. Within hours, two ships crossed the strait, the NJ Earth and the Daytona Beach, according to MarineTraffic.

Movement Is Still Extremely Limited

Only 8 commodity carriers per day have crossed since March 1 to April 7, a 95% drop from normal levels.

Out of 307 total crossings, 199 were oil and gas tankers, mostly heading east towards the Gulf of Oman.

6 out of 10 ships were linked to Iran; for cargo tankers, that rises to 8 out of 10.

Hundreds Of Ships Still Stuck

Around 800 ships remain stranded in the Gulf since late February. As of April 7, 172 million barrels of oil were floating at sea across 187 tankers.

The International Energy Agency says this is the worst supply disruption in oil market history.

Flows have collapsed, from 20 million barrels/day in peacetime to just 2.6 million barrels/day since March 1.

Even with the ceasefire, analysts say, the ship movement is still restricted and unpredictable. A massive backlog means crude oil will likely move first.

Security Risks Remain High

Iran's Revolutionary Guards have claimed three recent attacks on ships. One confirmed case involved the Qingdao Star, hit by a projectile above the waterline.

Overall, 30 commercial vessels (including 13 tankers) have faced attacks or incidents since March 1 across the Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, and Gulf of Oman.

A New "Iran-Approved" Route

Most ships are now using a route close to Iran's coast near Larak Island. This path has been dubbed the "Tehran Toll Booth" by shipping analysts.

Some ship operators are reportedly paying Iran for safe passage or securing movement through diplomatic negotiations. There have been reports of at least one payment of $2 million having been made for a ship to traverse the Strait.

Deal For Two-Week Ceasefire

The deal for a two-week ceasefire includes the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz after the nearly six-week-long war.

Hours after threatening that "a whole civilisation will die tonight," US President Donald Trump on Tuesday said that he had agreed to a two-week ceasefire with Iran, stepping back from the threat of strikes on the country's power plants and bridges.

"If Iran doesn't FULLY OPEN, WITHOUT THREAT, the Strait of Hormuz, within 48 HOURS from this exact point in time, the United States of America will hit and obliterate their various POWER PLANTS, STARTING WITH THE BIGGEST ONE FIRST," he posted on Truth Social.

Trump announced the ceasefire on Truth Social, saying he had accepted a proposal put forward by Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and his Field Marshal Asim Munir.

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