Stability In Northeast, Churn In South And A Knife-Edge Battle In Bengal: Exit Polls

Exit polls are not results. They set the narrative, not the final numbers. The real test will be on May 4.

01 May 2026, 09:35 · www.ndtv.com

New Delhi:

Exit polls across Assam, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, and West Bengal have thrown up a mix of clarity and curiosity. In some states, the story looks straightforward, while in others, the surface numbers hide deeper churn. With counting on May 4, the big picture is taking shape, but the finer details still matter.

Start with Assam. Here, the signal is strong and consistent. Almost all exit polls point to a clear win for BJP under Himanta Biswa Sarma, with some suggesting the party could cross the majority mark on its own. In a state shaped by identity politics and shifting demographics, that is no small feat. If this holds, it reinforces the BJP's position as the dominant force in Assam, not just electorally but structurally. Sarma's mix of welfare, governance, and anti-infiltrator political messaging seems to have clicked across regions. This is less about a close contest and more about consolidation. It is also about the impact of the delimitation exercise that the state went through and the BJP's positioning of Assam as extremely crucial for India's security.

Kerala looks like it may return to its familiar pattern. Most exit polls give the edge to UDF, pointing to anti-incumbency against the ruling LDF and a possible minority consolidation. The state has a history of swinging between the two fronts, a tradition that was broken in 2021 with the left coming back again, but this election seems to fit that rhythm again. That said, the margins are not uniform across surveys. On the ground, the fight felt tighter than what some projections suggest. Which means while UDF may be ahead, LDF is unlikely to have faded away. In Kerala, even when the verdict looks clear, the contest is rarely one-sided. This election in the state is also about the future of the left in Kerala and the legacy of CM Pinarayi Vijayan, around whom the party and government revolve.

Tamil Nadu is where things get interesting. Most exit polls give an edge to DMK, suggesting continuity. But that is only half the story. The bigger headline is the emergence of Vijay's TVK. A few projections suggest the party could touch around 30 percent vote share. For a debut, that would be remarkable.

This raises a key question. If TVK is doing well, who is it hurting? Early signs suggest its gains may come from urban areas and parts of southern Tamil Nadu. That could eat into DMK's base, especially among younger voters. But if DMK still ends up with strong numbers, then its strength is likely coming from rural belts, particularly in the north and west.

That brings caste and community equations into focus. How have the Vanniyar and Gounder youth voted? Are they sticking to traditional patterns or moving beyond them? And then there is Edappadi K. Palaniswami's AIADMK. In a triangular contest, even small shifts can change outcomes. Tamil Nadu is not just about who wins, but about how the political space is being reshaped in real time. At least two polls have also projected a hung assembly in which action post poll alliances might become important.

West Bengal remains the most fascinating contest. Exit polls are split. Some give Mamata Banerjee the edge, others project a BJP lead. This divergence tells its own story. Bengal is difficult to read, and this election is no different.

After 15 years in power, TMC faces anti-incumbency. But it also has a strong organisation and a leader who has repeatedly delivered under pressure. BJP, meanwhile, has made its most aggressive push yet, trying to convert its growth over the last decade into a winning coalition.

Both sides now have clear strongholds. Which means the real battle is in a limited number of tightly contested seats. Roughly 70 to 80 constituencies could decide the outcome. Add to that the lack of detailed seat-level data from many pollsters, and even reports of voter silence in some surveys, and the uncertainty only grows.

Put together, these exit polls show different political currents across states. Assam points to consolidation. Kerala suggests a return to its cyclical nature. Tamil Nadu hints at disruption beneath stability. Bengal stands out as a true toss-up.

But exit polls are not results. They set the narrative, not the final numbers.

The real test will be on May 4.

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