What Goldman Sachs Predicts About Future Of Strait Of Hormuz

Even though both US and Iran have stopped major attacks, including ballistic missiles and drones, the conflict hasn't truly ended.

28 Apr 2026, 05:13 · NDTV

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Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz may worsen or result in a persistent, uneasy peace
Iran's IRGC continues attacks on commercial ships using small fast boats in the Gulf
The US Navy enforces a blockade on Iranian-linked ships to cut off oil revenue

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As tensions continue in the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's most important routes for oil transport, analysts at Goldman Sachs say the situation could go in two different directions.

Things could worsen, leading to military clashes at sea. Or, the region could settle into what they call a "sloppy peace" - where there is no full-scale war, but tensions don't fully go away and small incidents keep happening from time to time.

Even though both the US and Iran have stopped major attacks, including ballistic missiles and drones, the war hasn't truly ended. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is still using small, fast boats to attack commercial ships in the Persian Gulf, according to Fortune.

In response, the US Navy has imposed a blockade on ships linked to Iran and is even boarding and seizing some vessels to cut off Iran's oil income.

Jared Cohen, co-head of the Goldman Sachs Global Institute, described this situation as "maritime trench warfare," where both sides are not fighting directly but are trying to weaken each other through economic pressure at sea.

He further said, "The sea route may look open, but Iran will still control it enough to influence the global economy whenever it wants."

Cohen, who is also the President of Global Affairs, said the route may not be as free and predictable as before unless the Iranian regime collapses. "You may have traffic flowing through, but the Iranians will likely maintain partial or unilateral control," he said on CNBC.

Cohen describes the situation as a "game of chicken," where both the US and Iran are waiting for the other side to give up first.

Each side hopes that damaging the other's economy will eventually force them to back down. Meanwhile, Cohen said that countries in the Gulf Cooperation Council believe a full peace deal is unlikely as long as Iran's current regime remains in power.

"My guess is the North Star on this, and where it goes is: you go from a sloppy ceasefire to a strong, enduring ceasefire and a sloppy peace. And a sloppy peace is basically a bunch of half-solutions on all the big issues," he explained.

The Gulf countries are trying to protect themselves from Iran by reducing how much they depend on the Strait of Hormuz. The UAE is also using pipelines to send oil to Fujairah on the Gulf of Oman.

The UAE plans to reduce its dependence on Hormuz from about 50 per cent to zero in the next two to three years.

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